Tornadoes and Flash Flood in New Mexico, June 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIG ACROSS NE AND EC NM WILL BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH
1930Z. STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY. STORMS APPEAR TO BE HIT AND MISS BUT THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT LVS/TCC AND ROW. WIND WOULD PROBABLY
BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT BUT SOME CELLS WILL BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND SHORT DURATION MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS PASS.
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES. GAP WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG TONIGHT AS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TS/SH COVERAGE TO THE EAST OF THE CNTRL MTNS.
FIGURE AT LEAST BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT FOR A FEW
HRS. SAF AND ABQ WOULD BE IMPACTED. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS
LATER TONIGHT WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE NE CORNER DUE TO A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTAL SURGE. FAR SE AREAS ALSO HAVE SOME MVFR POTENTIAL
DUE TO RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW MEXICO WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS USHERED IN SOME MOISTURE
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
OBSERVE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CARRY ON IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT WILL RECHARGE THE MOISTURE IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL THEN TRACK OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BREAKING OUT...PRIMARILY IN EASTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS STILL GOING EARLY THIS MORNING AS OF 330 AM MDT AS A MID
TROPOSPHERIC UNDULATION TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IGNITED SOME
ELEVATED STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH A COUPLE OF
SPLITTING SAN MIGUEL STORMS...AND WILL BE A NEAR TERM CONCERN
THROUGH THE SUNRISE AS THESE STORMS PROPAGATE TOWARD THE TX
BORDER. MOISTURE HAS SLOSHED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF NM...AND A SHARP DRYLINE HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH KABQ
REPORTING A 50 F DEWPOINT VERSUS THE 30 F DEWPOINT ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE CITY AT KAEG. MOISTURE WILL MIX BACK TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH OF THE EAST WILL
SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AND CAPE. ANY STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO TURN STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT HIGHEST RIBBON OF 3000+
J/KG CAPE AND LI'S OF -6 C OR LOWER WILL BE FOUND IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AGAIN TODAY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST
BULK SHEAR WILL BE FOUND...LARGELY A BY-PRODUCT OF MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE NEXT
FRONTAL SURGE INTO TOMORROW. NAM12 HAS SOME HIGH 0-3 KM HELICITY
VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...AND THIS COULD ALSO INCREASE
TORNADO THREAT ONCE CELLS INITIATE.

A NOCTURNAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS BEING THE PRIMARY DRIVER RATHER
THAN SYNOPTIC PROCESSES. ANOTHER EAST WIND WITH MERCURIAL DEWPOINT
TRENDS IS ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN INTO ABQ TONIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION...A
REINFORCING BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD NE NM
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MUCH OF THE EAST WILL BE UNDER THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

STORMS WILL HAVE ANOTHER GO ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL AID
FROM A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL GIVE ANOTHER COMPONENT
OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS IN THE EAST...BUT A FEW GARDEN VARIETY CELLS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
A STEADY TREND OF COOLING BY JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHEAST FALLING A FEW TICKS BELOW
AVERAGE.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DECREASES BY MONDAY AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK. POPS WERE REDUCED SOME...AND MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
MORE IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND TO OUR
SOUTH. THE ECMWF MODEL DOES INDICATE SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING...BUT COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN QUITE
SPARSE AND ISOLATED. IT WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT BEST CATALYST FOR STORMS ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER
BACK DOOR FRONT.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT IS THE TALE OF TWO HALVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THE DRY HALF
AND THE MOIST HALF...WITH A VARIABLE DRYLINE BOUNDARY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN THE MESA WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.  THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
KEY TO THE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS MOST UNDER THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING
AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS DUE TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH MOISTURE SURGES
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS WE HAVE A
COMFORTABLE CERTAINTY THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL BRING LOWER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL CAUSE A REDUCTION IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL WILL BE
HEIGHTENED FOR A DRY LIGHTNING THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

TODAY AND TOMORROW...TO THE WEST OF A LINE STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM
CHAMA TO SANTA FE TO ROSWELL...MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS.  THUS
CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH ARE MORE CONDUCIVE...AS
SUBSTANTIATED BY ABOVE NORMAL SUPER HAINES VALUES...MAX MIXING
HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 20 KFT...EXTREMELY LARGE VENTILATION RATES AND
ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL INSTABILITY.  IT IS THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE
ALONG THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY FROM CHAMA TO SANTA FE AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THAT IS OF MOST CONCERN
SINCE THIS WHERE DRY LIGHTNING IS MOST PROBABLE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE THREAT SHIFTS FARTHER WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGES PUSHES WEST WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...SETTING UP
A DRY LINE FROM CHAMA SOUTH THROUGH ALBUQUERQUE BEFORE RETREATING
EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND FURTHER
EAST INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN...JEMEZ...SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY.

DRY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT EXTENDS  A
DRYING TREND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREAS WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES. THE DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM RATON TO SANTA ROSA THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO LEA COUNTY DURING THIS PERIOD.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
518 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

NMZ501>540-071200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
518 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE. DAMAGING WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. DAMAGING WINDS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WITHIN EASTERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE ALERT AND READY TO
REPORT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS OR HAIL TO THE ALBUQUERQUE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU CAN SUBMIT YOUR REPORT AT
1.888.386.7637 OR VIA THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ. YOU CAN ALSO
SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ONTO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA
TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG N M W X.

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