NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 3:42 PM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 22, 3:42 PM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST WEDNESDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY, BEFORE SETTLING
OVERNIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE CLR EARLY, THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WERE MOSTLY ALIGNED WITH MAV MOS, BUT
ADJUSTED DOWN ACROSS THE N/W AREAS, WHERE AMPLE SNOW COVER REMAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N/W. PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING, BUT A FEW SCT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POPS INCREASE TO 30/40 BY 00Z MONDAY ACROSS THOSE AREAS. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AMTS WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 40S
NORTH/WEST AND MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH/EAST. ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY,
HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 50S. WINDS WILL BE SW EARLY, THEN
SHIFT TO W/NW LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER A CFP DURING FRI EVE, A WK SYS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUN
NIGHT BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE QUITE WARM ON SUN, SO AS TEMPS DROP BEHIND THE CFP, WE
ENCOUNTER THE TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE PROBLEM ONCE AGAIN.
CLEARLY AT THE ONSET PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE, BUT AS
TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE
TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. THE BIG QUESTION, OF COURSE IS HOW LOW DO
TEMPS GET FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND E AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS
LEFT IF THEY WERE TO GET COLD ENOUGH BY DAYBREAK. THE MDLS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIP IS BASICALLY OVER BY DAYBREAK, IF
NOT SOONER. REGARDLESS, THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THEN, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF MON INTO MON NIGHT (HAVEN'T WE HEARD THIS SONG
BEFORE??)
BY EARLY TUE, A WK S/W COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AGAIN, MAINLY
TO WRN AREAS, BUT GUID IS NOT ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS, BUT AGAIN
OVERALL QPF IS LOW. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE CARRYING LOW POPS.
AFTER THIS, ATTN TURNS ONCE AGAIN TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE GLFMEX
TUE NIGHT THAT MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA CST ERLY WED. THEN IT MOVES
NEWD TWD THE CAN MARITIMES DURG THE DAY ON WED. THE GFS AND CMC
HAVE A MORE EWD TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE WWD TRACK WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW. BASED ON OUR TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER OF MORE
WWD TRACKS AND THE ECMWF'S PERFORMANCE OF LATE, THE ECMWF SEEMS
LIKE THE BETTER SOLN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NORMALLY
GOOD UKMET IS DOWNPLAYING THIS SYS AS WELL. SO WHILE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TWD THE ECMWF, CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
ATTM. THIS DOES LOOK TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SYS. BASED ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK(FAMOUS LAST WORDS...) IT WOULD SEEM TO BE A HIGH END
ADVY LOW END WRNG EVENT. HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE SEEN ALL WINTER,
THESE THINGS SEEM TO RAMP UP AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. WE WILL SEE
IF THOSE TRENDS CONTINUE.
ADDITIONALLY, WE ARE COMING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN SNOW
FALLING DURG THE DAY SOMETIMES HAS A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING UNLESS
IT COMES DOWN HARD. GRANTED, THIS AMS LOOKS TO BE COLD, BUT ITS
NOT ERLY JAN ANYMORE. CERTAINLY OVER SRN AND ERN AREAS THERE COULD
BE SOME MIXED PRECIP AND EVEN SOME RAIN, DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE
TRACK AND OF COURSE TEMPS. FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS, ITS ALL SNOW.
THIS SYS MOVES BY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BRINGING
DRY AND BELOW NRML TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A WK CDFNT WILL
PASS TO THE N WED NIGHT BUT SHUD BE DRY, EXCEPT PSBLY OVER NWRN
AREAS.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NRML THRU THE PD. THE MEX GUID APPEARED TOO
WARM AS THE AMS IS ANOMALOUSLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AS IT
IS BIASED TWD CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER, WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER
GONE FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND E IT SEEMS LIKE WITH EACH RUN
ITS TEMPS ARE GETTING A TAD WARMER. PERHAPS IT IS ONTO SOMETHING?
FOR NOW HAVE UNDERCUT MOST BY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR AVIATION INTERESTS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SRN CANADA. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON SUNDAY MORNING. SKY COVER WILL BE CLR INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, THEN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE BKN/OVC HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS A SHORT WAVE
AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE OVER THE AREA. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED THRU 00Z MON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN. THE LIGHT
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING, ESPECIALLY
N AND W. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS PSBL, ESPECIALLY NA ND W.
LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
MON-MON NIGHT ...VFR. A GUSTY WEST WIND ON MON. HIGH CONFIDENCE
TUE...WK SYS WILL CROSS THE AREA AND COULD TRIGGER SOME SNOW,
MAINLY W. IF THIS OCCURS CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE REDUCED. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE IFR
RANGE IN SNOW. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
BECOMING NORTH THEN NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. WIND COULD GUST 25 TO
30 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE.
THU...HIGH PRESURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. VFR.
MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY W WIND 20 TO 25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WARMER AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS
WILL PREVENT DECENT MIXING HOWEVER. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS ON THE WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM, SO NO FLAGS
WILL BE NEEDED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
SUNDAY, SO WINDS WILL TENS TO SHIFT MORE WRLY BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BE MOSTLY 3 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-3 FT OVER DEL BAY.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON NIGHT...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED.
ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON MON.
LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT....NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
PSBL DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O'HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O'HARA