Strong Wind in Nevada, November 15, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PST SAT NOV 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AND
DELIVER A PUNCH OF MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ON SUNDAY. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY ALL EYES ARE TRACKING THE PROGRESS OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AS IT DRIVES SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND
DEATH VALLEY-VEGAS-MESQUITE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF COOLING TEMPERATURES.

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EVENING GRIDS TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
FRONTAL CLOUD BAND AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING THE
AIRFIELD THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
10 PM. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY.  AS THE WINDS WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...227 PM SAT...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING THEN NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN AS FAR WEST AS
GOLDFIELD. MAIN AFFECTS COME SUNDAY/MONDAY IN THE FORM OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGE TO WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE LAKE MEAD NATL RECREATION AREA AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER, BASED ON HI RESOLUTION MODELS DID EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO
WEST INTO SOUTHERN CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO
ENCOMPASS THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR.

COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 15 DEGREES COLDER TOMORROW. THE BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. IF WINDS SUBSIDE AND GO
CALM SUNDAY NIGHT, A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MOJAVE DESERT COULD
EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FREEZE AS WELL. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH FOR
THE CENTER OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BUT AREAS AROUND THE RIM
SUCH AS PARTS OF HENDERSON, MOUNTAINS EDGE, SUMMERLIN AND NELLIS AFB
COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO FREEZING. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS
OR GARDENS MAY WANT TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THE GFS IS INDICATING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
IN THE PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
DRY CONDITIONS UNDER SOME FORM OF WESTERLY FLOW...ANYWHERE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WEST WIND 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS OVER
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXPECTED. LOWER CIGS OVER NORTHERN
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE DESERT TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS POSSIBLE. STRONGER NORTH WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...HARRISON

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