Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 27, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
254 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA
TODAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY THE
GFS ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MONSOON MOISTURE TODAY AS THE NAM HAS
BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN BRINGING THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR TODAY THE GFS BRING MOISTURE TO THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO CENTRAL LANDER AND CENTRAL EUREKA COUNTIES.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 8/10 OF AN INCH MOST STORMS
WILL DROP DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NV TONIGHT AS BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD TO THE
IDAHO BORDER AND WESTWARD TO COVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 9/10 INCH. WITH SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT BOTH DAYS FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY ONE
LOCATION BUT THINK IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
FLUCTUATIONS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED AROUND THE FOUR-CORNER STATES. SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET COUPLET ENERGY AND INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON FLOW /PWATS
0.80 TO 1.00/ TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER THE CORE OF
ANY STRONG CONVECTION. TIMING AND LOCATION WILL BE A CHALLENGE
DAILY. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT OF ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
EXISTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DAILY.
&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND COVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION AFFECTING ANY TERMINAL WILL BE AT KELY /30 TO 35 PCT/
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND A LESSER CHANCE /AROUND 15 PCT/ AT KTPH
DURING A SMALL WINDOW ROUGHLY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
KWMC AND KEKO WILL REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND MONDAY, COVERING ALL FIRE ZONES BY MONDAY. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH STORMS WILL BE WET.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICT
ALL WEEK.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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