Montana, 2014Heavy Snow in Montana, September 9 to 11, 2014
September 9 to 11, 2014 · NWS TFX · 3 events in 2 counties and zones
A vigorous low pressure system moved southeast from Alberta into MT, bringing widespread precipitation to Central/North Central MT. Snow levels fell as cool air moved in behind the system and significant accumulating snowfall was seen, mostly at higher elevations.
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A vigorous low pressure system moved southeast from Alberta into MT, bringing widespread precipitation to Central/North Central MT. Snow levels fell as cool air moved in behind the system and significant accumulating snowfall was seen, mostly at higher elevations.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 9, 7:41 AM MST, 49 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 9, 7:41 AM MST, 49 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
841 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2014
.UPDATE...
The initial push of cooler air from the north has spread though
most of the forecast area with a deeper/colder airmass in place
over north-central MT and still deeper cold air upstream in
southern Alberta, poised to move south into north central MT
Tonight through Wednesday. Low level northerly upslope flow will
maintain low clouds and some very light sprinkles/flurries/drizzle
over much of north-central MT, however measurable/persistent
precipitation will be most likely from Glacier Park east along the
Hi-line. Snow levels are already down to around 4000 feet over the
north central MT plains and should remain in this vicinity through
today. Current forecast has this handled well, with stronger surge
of moisture arriving late tonight along the front range and across
the remainder of north central and Central Mt on Wednesday.
Hoenisch
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
For the plains expect widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings through the
period. There is a lot of uncertainty with respect to details on
timing of precipitation during the period and what associated
visibilities and ceilings will be. There will be a tendency for MVFR
ceilings this afternoon and IFR ceilings tonight and there will be a
tendency for VFR visibilities with precipitation this afternoon and
MVFR visibilities with precipitation tonight.
For southwest Montana expect VFR conditions this afternoon. There
will be MVFR ceilings at KHLN this morning and also possibly as far
south as KBZN. Expect any showers today to be isolated. Showers will
become scattered tonight with the possibility of MVFR ceilings with
them. Blank
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2014/
Today through Thursday...Cold front has made it's way through
central MT bringing much cooler air and scattered precipitation to
portions of the area during the overnight hours. Focus for the
next 48 hours or so will be the likelihood of the first
significant snowfall of the season for higher elevations along the
northern Rocky Mountain Front as well as in the Little Belt
Mountains.
Initial shortwave trough will continue to move across the area
today. Best combination of moisture and forcing aloft will reside
along the northern portions of the forecast area from Glacier
National Park to Blaine County. Northeasterly surface flow
will continue to provide upslope conditions along the Rocky
Mountain Front. Ongoing Winter Weather Advisory covers the
expected hazards well through tonight.
Stronger mid/upper shortwave trough begins to impact the region by
Wednesday morning. Latest model guidance continues to depict ample
moisture along with an environment favorable for impactful
snowfall over the higher terrain of the northern Rocky Mountain
Front and potentially the Little Belt mountains as well. Expected
precipitation amounts have increased since yesterday morning's
computer model runs yielding higher confidence in Winter Storm
Warning criteria being met Wednesday and Wednesday night. Have
upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for
locations above 5000 feet in the northern Rockies. Have also
issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of the Little Belt
Mountains including Kings Hill pass. Also likely to see light
snowfall at lower elevations, especially Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. No significant impacts are expected with
generally an inch or less of accumulations, primarily on grassy
surfaces.
Daytime temperatures through the next several days will remain 25
to 30 degrees below normal over north-central MT. The SW MT
valleys will remain seasonably warm until the colder airmass
finally makes it's way there on Thursday. A few locations could
reach record lows Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning. Foltz
Thursday night through Tuesday...There will be northwest flow aloft
through the weekend. Expect embedded weak weather disturbances in
this flow. Models differ on their timing but agree there will not be
much moisture with them so will continue the dry forecast. An upper
ridge will move over Montana early next week. Models indicate that a
weather disturbance aloft will move through the ridge by Tuesday.
There is some uncertainty with whether there will be a few showers
or not so until there is better agreement will go dry. Temperatures
will be cool Friday and Saturday but not as cool as Thursday. As the
upper ridge moves in looks for warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday
with further warming possible Tuesday. Blank
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 48 36 45 32 / 60 50 60 70
CTB 42 33 38 27 / 90 50 70 80
HLN 59 39 52 37 / 20 40 50 50
BZN 64 38 56 33 / 10 40 30 50
WEY 64 29 56 27 / 40 20 20 30
DLN 69 39 61 33 / 10 20 20 20
HVR 48 37 46 31 / 80 60 60 20
LWT 50 36 43 30 / 60 60 60 50
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MDT Wednesday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Wednesday to Noon MDT Thursday
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Thursday
morning Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.
&&
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Heavy Snow, Southern Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- September 9, 8:30 AM MST to September 11, 4:00 AM MST
- Where
- Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Reported by
- SNOTEL
Heavy snow, measuring 8.0 inches in 12 hours, was reported at the Dupuyer Creek SNOTEL; elevation 5750 feet.
Heavy Snow, North Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- September 9, 8:00 PM MST to September 11, 12:00 AM MST
- Where
- North Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Reported by
- SNOTEL
Heavy snow, measuring 8.0 inches in 12 hours, was reported at the Pike Creek SNOTEL; elevation 5928 feet.
Heavy Snow, North Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- September 9, 8:00 PM MST to September 11, 12:00 AM MST
- Where
- North Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Reported by
- Social Media
Heavy snow, measuring 8.0 inches in 12 hours, was reported in Heart Butte, MT.
- Heavy Snow
- Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Iowa, September 9 to 12, 2014$4.5 million · 2 in hail · 108 events
- Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, September 9, 2014$1.1 million · 1 in hail · 3 events
- Flood and Hail in Nebraska, September 9 to 10, 2014$540,000 · 1 in hail · 14 events
- Tornado and Flash Flood in Nebraska, September 9, 2014$150,000 · EF1 · 10 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 9, 2014$100,000 · 65 kt wind · 10 events
- Damaging Wind in Illinois, September 9, 2014$150,000 · 61 kt wind · 1 event
- Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Missouri, September 9 to 10, 2014EF1 · 33 events
- Winter Weather and Strong Wind in Montana, September 9 to 12, 2014$51,000 · 4 events
- Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 9, 2014$36,000 · 78 kt wind · 2 events
- Lakeshore Flood and Heavy Rain in Michigan, September 9 to 11, 2014$7,000 · 18 events
- Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 9, 201487 kt wind · 8 events
- Tornado and Flash Flooding in Missouri, September 9 to 10, 2014EF0 · 5 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 544360, 544358, 544359.