Hail and Damaging Wind in Missouri, July 14, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

A HUGE UPPER TROUGH FORCING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER, BEFORE WE CAN
GET TO THE EXTREMELY PLEASANT WEATHER WHICH WILL VISIT THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY WE'LL NEED TO ADDRESS THE INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

WHILE YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMINESS HAS MOVED
DECIDEDLY SOUTH OF THE CWA THERE IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF STEADILY GROWING
CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE IN
RESPONSE TO A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A
REGION OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS. SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT FAILED TO
CLEAR OUT THE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY, 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE, AVAILABLE
TO ENHANCE THE APPROACHING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.
WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. THE ABOVE NOTED
INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD SUPPORT A
RENEGADE NEAR-SEVERE STORM OR TWO. IN ADDITION, A REGION  OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES POOLED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
(NORTHERN MO)AND AFTERNOON (SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER) WHILE COLD AIR
ADVECTION SPREADING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON MINIMIZES THE AFTERNOON
HEATING.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPERATURES FUNNELED SOUTHWARD BY THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY
RECORD MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME UPPER 40S EITHER MORNING IN THE SHELTERED AREAS
DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A TAD CONCERNED
AN UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD BRING SOME
CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS IT SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE
MODELS TREND WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES POSSIBLY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS HELD AT BAY WEST OF THE ROCKIES
AND THUS THE HOT AIR REMAINS WELL WEST OF US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO
SIGNAL A THREAT FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NE.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

Areas of IFR fog along and south of the Missouri River will dissipate
by 14z. An area of showers and thunderstorms will track southeast
through northern and central MO, affecting areas north of I-70 this
morning and south of I-70 this afternoon. While VFR ceilings are
expected with the convection there will likely be pockets of MVFR
ceilings with the heavier cells. Gusty northerly winds will soon
follow the ending of the showers and weaken shortly before sunset.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
LISTED BELOW ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR KANSAS CITY AND
ST. JOSEPH.

             JULY 15TH   JULY 16TH
KANSAS CITY   56/1990     57/1985
ST. JOSEPH    49/1967     54/1970

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
520 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WIDELY SCATTERED
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
 AFTERNOON. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
 POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
838 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

KSZ025-102-141415-
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-
838 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND
NORTHERN ATCHISON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 833 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DENTON...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHLAND...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ATCHISON AND DONIPHAN.

LAT...LON 3966 9534 3976 9535 3977 9534 3969 9504
      3955 9513 3965 9539 3966 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1338Z 289DEG 29KT 3969 9527

MELL