Flash Flood and Hail in Missouri, April 2, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
434 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

Expect ongoing TSRA to continue to move ewd this morning and shud
continue to back build into at least central MO if not further W
into wrn MO thru at least sunrise. TSRA over ern KS shud lift
enewd this morning and affect mainly the nrn half of the CWA.
These storms shud move ewd out of the region by this afternoon.
This shud leave the bulk of the afternoon, and perhaps the early
evening, dry.

A wrmfnt shud slowly lift nwd today, but clouds and precip will
help slow the nwd progression. The nwd progression of this fnt will
largely determine where the storms are likely to develop this
evening. This will also determine svr potential this afternoon and
tonight.

Believe elevated storms will form this evening and persist
overnight impacting the nrn half of the CWA. These storms shud
have a large hail threat given available elevated CAPE and shear.
S of the fnt, precip is more questionable. However, are some mdl
solns that suggest TSRA developing upstream of the CWA and moving
into the region overnight. Main question will be timing. The
threat with these storms will trend more twd wind, but also
include hail.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

Mdls continue to point to a widespread severe weather outbreak on
Thursday. TSRA shud be ongoing at Thurs morning, mainly over the
ern portions of the CWA. These storms shud move out of the region
quickly, leaving the bulk of the day dry. TSRA shud develop just w
of the CWA, or along the wrn fringes, late Thurs afternoon and
move ewd into the area. Progd hodographs show initial mode shud be
supercells, but shud eventually upscale into QLCS. Primary threats
will be tornadoes and large hail given the 30+ kts of 0-1 km shear
and SRH of 300+ Joules. This wud point to a threat of strong
tornadoes this eve as the LLJ ramps up. While the primary threat
will shift more twd damaging winds as storm mode changes to QLCS,
tornadoes will still be a threat given the strong low level shear.

Some question remains with sfc low track. Had originally
discounted the NAM, but 06z cycle is closer to other solns. While
the entire CWA will see a threat for svr wx Thurs night, believe
the primary concern will be for the srn half of the CWA.

Beyond Fri, cooler temps are expected. Generally trended twd a
blend of guidance given mdl differences. However, mdls are in
fairly good agreement with much cooler temps on Fri and Fri night.
Have therefore trended cooler. Kept POPs in the extd in the low
chance range given uncertainty.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014

Warm advection shras/tstms have already begun to form across ern
KS/wrn MO over the past hour or so. This activity has connected to
the earlier precip now across cntrl IL. It appears that KCOU and
KUIN will have several hours of precip. The STL metro sites are
expected to be on the sthrn edge of this area of precip. The
models don't seem to be handling the moisture return well and are
overdoing the low level RH fields. If the guidance verifies, then
the TAFs will need to be drastically altered. This is all north of
a stationary front that is expected to move north of a warm front
thru the day. A break in the precip is fcst from late mrng into
early evng before more convection is expected to dvlp. This part
of the fcst is low confidence...so have not included a new line to
account for this activity. Winds will be serly to the south of the
advancing warm front.

Specifics for KSTL:

More convection is expected to move into the terminal over the
next several hrs and is should last thru 12Z. There should be a
break during the day with another round of convection Wednesday
night.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     68  61  78  45 /  60  80  60  80
Quincy          54  50  71  38 /  70  80  60  80
Columbia        66  59  76  39 /  70  80  60  80
Jefferson City  68  61  76  40 /  60  80  60  80
Salem           66  61  75  52 /  80  80  60  80
Farmington      70  63  77  46 /  40  80  60  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
452 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
452 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME
OF THE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MAY BE SEVERE.
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...IF OBSERVED...TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
150 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

MOZ047-048-020730-
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-
150 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MONITEAU AND CENTRAL
COLE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 146 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF VERSAILLES...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HIGH POINT AROUND 200 AM CDT.
ENON AROUND 205 AM CDT.
RUSSELLVILLE AROUND 210 AM CDT.
LOHMAN AROUND 215 AM CDT.
ST. MARTINS AROUND 220 AM CDT.
WARDSVILLE AROUND 225 AM CDT.
JEFFERSON CITY AROUND 230 AM CDT.

CVKING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
427 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

MOZ060-061-021015-
ST. CHARLES MO-WARREN MO-
427 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WARREN AND CENTRAL ST.
CHARLES COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 423 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WARRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WRIGHT CITY AROUND 435 AM CDT.
FORISTELL AROUND 440 AM CDT.
WENTZVILLE AND FLINT HILL AROUND 450 AM CDT.
LAKE ST. LOUIS AND DARDENNE PRAIRIE AROUND 455 AM CDT.
O'FALLON AND ST. PAUL AROUND 500 AM CDT.
ST. PETERS...COTTLEVILLE AND WELDON SPRING AROUND 505 AM CDT.
HARVESTER AROUND 510 AM CDT.

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
447 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     HAIL             WENTZVILLE              38.81N  90.86W
04/02/2014  M0.25 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CVKING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
453 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ILZ069-074-101-102-021045-
CLINTON IL-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL-
453 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLINTON...WASHINGTON...
SOUTHERN ST. CLAIR AND EASTERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 449 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BELLEVILLE TO RED
BUD...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MASCOUTAH...SCOTT AFB...NEW ATHENS AND LENZBURG AROUND 500 AM CDT.
MARISSA AND FAYETTEVILLE AROUND 505 AM CDT.
DAMIANSVILLE...NEW BADEN...ALBERS...NEW MEMPHIS...ST. LIBORY...VENEDY
AND JOHANNISBURG AROUND 510 AM CDT.
GERMANTOWN AROUND 515 AM CDT.

CVKING