Isolated strong thunderstorms caused some trees to be blown over in Sunflower county, east northeast of Renova.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Isolated strong thunderstorms caused some trees to be blown over in Sunflower county, east northeast of Renova.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 8:01 PM CST, 59 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 901 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014 .UPDATE... EVENING SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTING SE THROUGH THE REGION AND S/WV...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS...MOVING FROM THE NW TO SE THROUGH WRN AR. THIS INCREASING LIFT FROM THE S/WV AIDED WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SE AR AND NRN LA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE. RUC AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MUCAPE WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST CURRENTLY AND BEGIN TO WANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LAPS INDICATES AROUND 500-700 J/KG IN THE FAR NW DELTA AREAS. ALSO DUE TO MUCH LOWER FREEZING LEVEL ~8K FT/WBZ HEIGHTS AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT (~ -5C TO -8C AT H7 AND -21C TO -25C AT H5 PER KJAN/KLZK 00Z SOUNDINGS)...THERE WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IN THE FAR NW DELTA. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS TO SEE HOW THE STORMS HOLD UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF STORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN...WILL LOOK INTO REMOVING SEVERE WORDING FROM HWO. FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...THE FORECAST IS RUNNING ON TRACK. ONLY MADE CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS. /DC/ && .AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NW HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH HAIL SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO GLH/GWO BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE HIGH BASED SO ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WOULD LIKELY COME FROM LOWER VIS IF THE SITE IS UNDER ANY ACTIVITY AND THAT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. DUE TO THIS...WILL NOT CARRY ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY DAYBREAK WITH SLIGHTLY GUSTY WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH VFR FLIGHT CATS AGAIN. /BB/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/ DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IS PIVOTING AROUND THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...WITH ONE PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE... SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY. AN INTERESTING FORECAST SCENARIO PRESENTS ITSELF FOR TONIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C ACROSS THE DELTA INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. UPSTREAM ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF THESE CELLS ARE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WITH A FEW PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZE. BASED ON ONGOING ACTIVITY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE RUNS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BELIEVE SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE DELTA TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO TOWARD JACKSON. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LIKE HATTIESBURG AND MERIDIAN. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT INDICATE A FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT ACROSS THE DELTA QUITE LOW IN THE 6-8 KFT RANGE. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HANGING AROUND...MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. IN FACT...WITH THE CLOUD BASE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE FREEZING LEVEL...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN A FROZEN STATE AT THE CLOUD BASE. THE LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY WILL HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL...BUT WE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND PROGGED 700 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE DELTA IT IS POSSIBLE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME ENHANCED BY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND OCCASIONALLY PUSH THROUGH THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE FROM TIME TO TIME. THUS WE HAVE ADDED A LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DELTA AREA IN THE HWO/GRAPHICAST PRODUCTS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH ALL INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH PLEASANT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRADES TO THE EAST...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE JET STREAM EXTENDING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...A WEST-TO- EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES RIDE ACROSS THIS AREA... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. FARTHER SOUTH... GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. IN SPITE OF THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL STILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH RECORD LOWS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. /DL/ LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)... THE GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GEM, NAVY AND UKMET MODELS WERE GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE FORECASTED UPPER PATTERN. THE ANOMALOUS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER FEATURE WITH THE AID OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8C WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. 0-2 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55KTS. CIPS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNALS WITH THIS PATTERN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH A NUMBER OF HAIL REPORTS AND A FEW WIND REPORTS. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THIS POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. DUE TO THE INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS. AS WE PUSH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AS MEAN RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT WILL HAVE MAXIMUM HEIGHT RISES BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MEX GUIDANCE. FOR POPS MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND./17/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 47 76 53 81 / 25 8 6 7 MERIDIAN 44 76 49 83 / 7 6 7 5 VICKSBURG 49 75 53 80 / 29 10 7 10 HATTIESBURG 46 79 53 84 / 7 2 8 6 NATCHEZ 49 76 54 81 / 8 5 13 12 GREENVILLE 50 76 54 75 / 49 11 17 17 GREENWOOD 49 74 50 76 / 28 10 18 14 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && DC/BB/DL/17
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 220 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-040>042-161930- ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR- SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS- HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO- 220 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RISK...LIMITED TIMING...TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN 7PM AND 3AM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ029>033-037>039-043>066-072>074-161930- RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA- WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE- MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON- LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON- ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON- JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST- 220 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. CME && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN HOME PAGE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK... WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER... @NWSJACKSONMS ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ SPC...MESO ANALYSIS... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/# SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/ SPC...STORM REPORTS... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/ NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!
MSZ018-160245-
BOLIVAR MS-
916 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUNNISON AT 916
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
PEOPLE IN NORTHERN BOLIVAR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
LAT...LON 3400 9065 3377 9066 3389 9104 3393 9102
3395 9107 3397 9110 3399 9108 3400 9101
3396 9098 3398 9097 3402 9099 3403 9090
3406 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 289DEG 40KT 3400 9105
JAThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large oak tree and several limbs were blown down along Drew Merigold Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, May 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 511494.