Damaging Winds in Minnesota, September 20, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STILL MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE FROM PEMBINA TO
KGFK TO NEAR VALLEY CITY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE EAST
OF THAT LINE. CLOUDS AND FOG LIMITED TEMPS OVER NORTHWEST MN TOO
SO THINK THAT BEST BET FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF ABOVE MENTIONED
BOUNDARY. GOT A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM SPC IN THE PAST 10
MINUTES DISCUSSING THIS SAME GENERAL AREA. LIKE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED THE MAIN THREAT FOR OUR AREA MAY BE WIND. AS THE BAND OF
RAIN GOT INTO THE KGFK AREA HAVE SEEN WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TO START THE DAY...WILL HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF NW MN AND
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG IN NE ND. BIG ISSUE TODAY IS UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
ND AT 18Z AND THEN INTO WEST CNTRL MN AT 00Z SUN. VERY STRONG MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH A 80 KT 500 MB JET AND 130 KT 300 MB
JET WITH THIS VORT...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTN. SPC WRF AND
RUC AND LOCAL WFO FGF WRF ALL INDICATE ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING OVER NE ND NEAR NOON-EARLY
AFTN AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TO MID AFTN.
PEAK OF ACTIVITY VIA RADAR PROGS FROM SPC WRF WOULD INDICATE AREAS
FROM ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES IN THE PRIME ZONE THEN LINE WILL MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. SPC DAY 1
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK USING THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMETERS. ONE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
WITH BARELY BELOW 0C SHOWALTERS WITH SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME THIS. WIND SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45 KTS FOR A TIME MID AFTN
JUST EAST OF THE RRV AS LINE MOVES THROUGH. THUS ANY STRONG STORM
LINE COULD EASILY MIX THIS DOWN. HAIL ALSO A THREAT DUE TO COOLING
AT 500 MB WITH SYSTEM AS TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL DROP TO -20C. TORNADO
THREAT WOULD SEEM LOW...DUE TO LACK OF SFC LOW UNLIKE YESTERDAY.

DID INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE RRV
INTO MN IN RISK AREA BASED ON TIMING FROM SPC WRF/RUC.

SYSTEM CLEARS EAST TONIGHT...LINGERING CLOUDS IN LAKE OF THE
WOODS BUT CLEARING ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS MOST
PROMINENT IN MN FCST AREA UNDER DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE
PRODUCES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ITO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR IN TIMING AT 84 HOURS THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
ON THU AND FRI. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE ON TUE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...INCREASE TEMPS BY A DEGREE ON THU.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
REGION...EXITING MOST TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...BECOMING
WEAKER NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
714 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-211215-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
714 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE RISK AREA IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LANGDON TO FARGO TO WAHPETON LINE.
THE MAIN THREAT IS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING AND THEN INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
MAIN RISK TIME IS NOON THROUGH 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

DTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
915 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             6 SE GREENBUSH          48.64N 96.09W
09/19/2014  M1.50 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO PING PONG SIZE LASTED 5 MINUTES.

&&

JKAISER