Heavy Snow in Minnesota, March 18, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06 TAF ISSUANCE.

RADAR SHOWING PRECIP BANDS STARTING TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. SFC LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO NE COLORADO. LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER NE AND
EJECT INTO SOUTHERN IOWA TUESDAY. PER COORDINATION CHATS WITH
FGF/BIS...AGREE THAT THE NAM HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP EXTENT
SO FAR. THIS COULD MEAN A LESS ROBUST RAIN/SNOW EVENT FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE NAM WAS THE DRIEST MODEL...BUT WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO SNOW AMOUNTS NOW. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
SHORT RANGE GRIDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. WILL UPDATE THE WSW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ALL AVAILABLE MODEL DATA TODAY STILL HITS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT STILL VARY IN THE AMOUNTS. HAVE
UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR A GENERAL 5 TO 8
INCHES...WHICH IS A BLEND OF WHAT THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW.
STILL...THIS CLOSE TO EVENT TIME MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON
OVERALL AMOUNTS. FURTHER TO THE WEST HAVE TAPERED DOWN TO A WINTER
WX ADVISORY...WITH LESSER AND LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS THE FURTHER WEST
YOU GO. ALTHOUGH...A CLUSTER OF MODELS ARE PINGING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL SD REGION FOR PERHAPS SOME HIGH END ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND
MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA. SNOW BAND LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THAT AREA SO JUST STUCK WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW. IT WILL BE THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST THAT SEES THE SNOW BAND
REMAIN IN THE AREA THE LONGEST AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND SOME
PIVOTING/STALLING OCCURS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SD. DUE TO THE HEAVY AND WET
NATURE OF THE SNOW...NOW OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT LOFTING OF AND
BLOWING OF SNOW. BUT...WILL SURELY SEE LOW VSBY WITHIN ANY
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS COMBINED WITH THE WIND. PRECIP STILL
LOOKS TO BEGIN AS RAIN AS ITS MOVING IN...THEN WITH THE ONSET OF
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN THIS FORECAST UNFORTUNATELY
SINCE WERE DEALING WITH A SWITCH TO RAIN AND SNOW. ANY LONGER
DURATION OF WARM AIR AND RAIN WILL CUT OFF SNOW TOTALS
SIGNIFICANTLY. ALSO...MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING QUITE A BIT OF FLIP
FLOPPING AND SHOWING LARGE SPREADS IN OVERALL SNOW ACCUMS.
FORECAST REFLECTS THE BEST BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO MAJOR MODEL CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...LEAVING OUR AREA MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. THERE IS A DECENT WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH FOR NOW THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THIS CWA. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN PLUMMET.
925 TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO
SATURDAY...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND 30S MAY EVEN BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH A HINT OF EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TURN TO ALL SNOW BY 09Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE IFR
RANGE. THE SNOWFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AT KATY DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LESS AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE WEST.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE AT KPIR TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM THE
FAR WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-SPINK-
     STANLEY-SULLY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
     DAY-MARSHALL.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
330 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-182030-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
330 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014 /230 PM MDT MON MAR 17 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
SWITCHING TO SNOW BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY...WITH
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 35 MPH. THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 IN NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH GENERALLY 4 TO PERHAPS 8 INCHES. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TMT