Non-severe thunderstorms developed in the late afternoon and early evening hours of the 28th over northeast lower Michigan.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Non-severe thunderstorms developed in the late afternoon and early evening hours of the 28th over northeast lower Michigan.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 28, 5:05 PM EST, 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 605 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO MICHIGAN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 600 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THIS EVENING: VERY LOW. COMPACT WAVE SEEN ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE ROTATING NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. STILL...GIVEN LITTLE CAPPING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES PARTICULARLY M-55 AND POINTS SOUTH. NEAR TERM MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MU/MLCAPES HAVE PEAKED...AND CONCURRENTLY...HAVE NOTED CLOUD TOP WARMING AND A RECENT REDUCTION IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...BUT WITH ARRIVING WAVE NOT COMPLETELY DYING OUT...WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY EXPAND TO ABOUT M-32 /WITH ISO-SCT ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS/. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...PRIMARILY TO PAINT A SMALL CATEGORICAL AREA AND PULL LIKELIES AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS. GIVEN RECENT CAPE TRENDS...SEE NO SEVERE THREAT AND RECENT REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES BEAR THIS OUT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS PLACING BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM/MOIST AXIS HAS FINALLY MADE INROADS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY SPANNING THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA AND DEWPOINTS SQUARELY IN THE 60S...TRUE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WARMTH/HUMIDITY HAS PUSHED MLCAPE VALUES UP OVER 1000 J/KG FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTHWARD INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS ANTICIPATED...ROBUST CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER HAVE MATERIALIZED WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. NOTHING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE ALTHOUGH ONE CELL OVER GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR DID SHOW SIGNS OF SOME SMALL HAIL. TO THE SOUTH...SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE NOTED LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER DOWN THAT WAY. TONIGHT...HEATING/SMALL SCALE FORCING INDUCED SHOWERS SHOULD RUN THEIR COURSE INTO THE EARLY-MID EVENING HOURS POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE INTO INTERIOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS HEATING INDUCED CONVERGENCE AXIS CONTRACTS INLAND. SMALLER CHANCES IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWERS THAT GET GOING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY EVENTUALLY END UP DRIFTING INTO EASTERN UPPER IN THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THEN...WITH LOSS OF HEATING...I HAD ORIGINALLY PLANNED TO PULL PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...AM A BIT WORRIED ABOUT THAT AFOREMENTIONED SMALL SCALE WAVE PUSHING INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS THE SAME FEATURE THAT WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS IN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT SATELLITE TIMING SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE (IF IT MAINTAINS IT/S CURRENT TRACK) WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE CONTINUE TO SEE NUISANCE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE CAPITALIZES ON WHATEVER INSTABILITY IS LINGERING AROUND OUT THERE (IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WARM/HUMID NIGHT). SO...HAVE STRETCHED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT HAVE KEPT THUNDER FOR JUST THE EVENING HOURS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 ...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OVERVIEW...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE STORMS LATE MONDAY...IN PARTICULAR...MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARMTH/MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ONE SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH IS POISED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS FORCING WILL ARRIVE COINCIDENT WITH AN AXIS OF ELEVATED 850 MB THETA-E AIR /DEW POINTS NEAR +13C/ AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY...WITH 78/67 YIELDING JUST UNDER 1K J/KG MLCAPE. THIS...COUPLED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER - THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD/DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY... BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING...SO THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET JUST W OF MICHIGAN...RETURN MOISTURE...AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL FUEL ADDITIONAL CONVECTION UPSTREAM THAT MAY IMPACT E UPPER AND NW LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH /WITH HIGHS LIKELY LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF PRECIP/. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 60S. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE /WITH ACCOMPANYING UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS/ WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD AND IMPACT REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING. WITH STRONG 850 MB FLOW /35-45 KT/ AND 500 MB WINDS NEARING 50 KT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST AREA PROVIDED INSTABILITY PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION A TOUGH CALL...GIVEN IMPACT OF ONGOING/PREVIOUS CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING COMPLEX TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND/OR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... PWAT/S AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL AND STRONG SW FLOW BETWEEN 850-300 MB WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH GRADUAL DRYING AND COOLING AT 850 MB IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL FORM WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. REMAINDER OF FORECAST /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 500 MB TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NE PART OF CONUS THROUGH THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD /INCLUDING THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY/. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST. RESIDUAL COOL AIR AND TROUGHING ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A HIGH SUN ANGLE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH RELAXES BUT RETURN FLOW/MOISTURE INCREASES. FORECAST WILL TENTATIVELY REFLECT ANOTHER RISK FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE COOLISH 60S TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MODERATING INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD IMPACT TVC/MBL AND POSSIBLY PLN THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO GET GOING. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL RUN THEIR COURSE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT TVC/MBL BUT WILL NOT BE A HUGE PLAYER. SUNDAY...STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO SWING UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIKELY BE SOME SORT OF LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THIS FEATURE THAT GETS GOING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WORKS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THIS UNFOLDS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT THERE TODAY ALTHOUGH LAKE BREEZES HAVE FORMED TURNING WINDS MORE ONSHORE ALONG ALL SHORELINES. WINDS WILL TEND TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND MAY DRIFT INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND AREAS NORTH. EXPECT BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY FOR A LARGER AREA OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO MARINERS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...OVERALL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...ARNOTT SYNOPSIS...MR SHORT TERM...ADAM LONG TERM...BS AVIATION...ADAM MARINE...ADAM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 425 PM PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 292000- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 425 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WEST OF I-75. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD. SMITH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 519 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 MIZ020>036-041-042-290030- LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE- KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE- ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD... ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA... GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY... HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 519 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 ...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION... AS OF 5 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A REGION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THAT IS MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE M-55 CORRIDOR DURING THE NEXT HOUR...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE M-32 CORRIDOR BY 8 PM. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON COASTLINES. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF TRAVELING...BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES. AND IF OUTDOORS...BE PREPARED TO SEEK A STURDY SHELTER WHEN THE STORMS ARRIVE. ARNOTT
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 79 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:52 UTC.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
A lightning strike injured six people at the Rifle River State Recreation Area. All were transported to a hospital in West Branch, where they were treated and released.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, June 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 531676.