Heavy Snow in Michigan, January 5 to 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1159 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS FROM
PONTIAC NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.  STEADY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACCUMULATION APPROACHING 3 INCHES
AT PTK AND FNT BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
DETROIT AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.  A HIGH INTENSITY PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIFR WITH VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES.   SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.  DTW WILL REMAIN DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOWFALL...CONFINING ACCUMULATION AT AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH MID
MORNING.  SNOW INTENSITY WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PERIOD OF SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS WILL
LEAD TO VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOWFALL.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST
  PERIOD.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW THROUGH THE
  FORECAST PERIOD.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY FALLING BELOW
  1/2 MILE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 855 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014/

UPDATE...

LEAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SHEARING EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING.  THE ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS WORKING INTO THE
DEEP RESIDENT SOUTHWESTERLIES ALLOWING THE DEFINED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ALIGNED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO GRADUALLY EASE ACROSS
THE LOWER PENINSULA.  THE EVOLVING LINEAR BANDS OF SNOWFALL TAKING
FORM AS EXPECTED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL
SLOPE...A STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY IN THE LOWEST 1 KM
BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE INTO BETTER EAST-NORTHEAST EXPANSION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-59.  NO SURPRISES WITH THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION THUS FAR...WITH AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN FRONTAL
FORCING STILL EXPECTED TO EMERGE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SOLIDIFIES OVERHEAD AND SYNCS WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER
JET DYNAMICS.  THIS IN COMBINATION WEAK CVA CONTAINED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ELONGATED WEAK IMPULSE OR SHEAR AXIS WILL ENSURE A
SUSTAINED AREA OF SNOWFALL PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT REMAINS DEFINING BOTH
LOCATION AND WIDTH OF ANY POCKETS OF STRONGER FGEN WORKING THROUGH
THE CIRCULATION...THE ADDITIVE RESULT LAYING THE EARLY FOUNDATION
FOR EVENTUAL NET SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY.  MOST RECENT MODEL EVIDENCE AND ONGOING RADAR
TRENDS STILL INDICATE A STRIP EXTENDING BETWEEN THE M-59 CORRIDOR
AND A SAGINAW-CARO-BAD AXE LINE WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR AN ENHANCED AND PERSISTENT REGION OF MID LEVEL FORCING.  THE
OVERALL EXPECTATION LARGELY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A PORTION OF THIS
CORRIDOR FAVORED TO SEE HIGHER END TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE
WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING. THERE REMAINS A NOTEWORTHY SHARP EDGE TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE BAND...LEAVING POINTS SOUTH OF A DETROIT TO ANN
ARBOR LINE IN A HOLDING PATTERN. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE GOVERNING DYNAMICS THAT THIS CORRIDOR TAKES A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT TO WITNESS ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATION.
ACCUMULATION AT AN INCH OR LESS BY MORNING HERE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT

OVERALL FORECAST REASONING FOR THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST ONE BULK ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A NOTEWORTHY NORTHWEST TREND
OBSERVED IN THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS ULTIMATELY PROMPTED THE
EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING INTO BAY, MIDLAND, AND SAGINAW
COUNTIES.

UPPER MASS GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY TIGHTENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE RESULTANT JET
RESPONSE IS NOW SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW ALONG A MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND
THAT IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES
OVER THE CWA. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE TENDENCY IN
THESE SLOPED FRONT SITUATIONS IS FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN MOST ACTIVE
FURTHER SOUTH. THIS OFFERS SUPPORT FOR THE 12Z SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW
A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEING CAREFUL NOT
TO ALLOW THE FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS HOT WITH FGEN-RELATED QPF AS
THE NWP, THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR 1-3" ACROSS THE CWA BY
DAYBREAK. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE CENTERED ALONG I-69 WHERE AN
ISOLATED 4" WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO
AREA, SNOW WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO GET GOING. HOWEVER, INCREASING
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DOWNWARD PROGRESSION OF FGEN
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT BLOSSOMING LIGHT SNOW DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECT 0.5" TO 2" IN THE METRO AREA BY MORNING WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR M59.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX AS A DIGGING
WAVE OVER THE 4-CORNERS WRAPS NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEM TRENDED IN THE
DIRECTION OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERN WAVE AND MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN SAID WAVE AND THE DIGGING LOBE OF THE POLAR
VORTEX WHICH IS ANCHORING AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE. THE NET EFFECT IS
THE SOUTHERN WAVE BEING SHOWN TO WRAP MORE AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES PROMPTING A MORE AGGRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE AND
ULTIMATELY A NORTHWEST SHIFT IN THE SENSIBLE WX FIELDS. EVENT-TOTAL
PEAK QPF IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS RANGES FROM AROUND 1.00" ON
THE LOW END (GEM-REG) TO 1.30+" ON THE HIGH END (ECMWF). THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED UPWARD TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO 0.90".

THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RESPONSE APPEARS TO BE NOT ONLY DUE TO
STRONGER/MORE CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS, BUT ALSO
DUE TO A COUPLING OF JET STREAKS OVER LOWER PENINSULA. PLANVIEWS OF
250MB AGEOSTROPHIC WIND VECTORS CONFIRM THAT THE APPROACHING CURVED
SOUTHERN JET STREAK AND THE DEPARTING NORTHERN JET ARE BEING SHOWN
TO PRODUCE INCREDIBLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE - AND WITHIN A REGION
OF STRONG SUPERGEOSTROPHIC ACCELERATION TO BOOT. THIS SUPPORTS
MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF AN INTENSE PERIOD OF HEAVY
SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHEN RATES OF 1"/HOUR
ARE LIKELY. THE FORECAST WAS NUDGED ACCORDINGLY IN THIS DIRECTION.
PEAK SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 10" ARE NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR ROUGHLY
ALONG A SANDUSKY TO FLINT LINE WITH A SOLID 6-10" EVERYWHERE ELSE.

A FINAL FORECAST NOTE - THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SUPPORT THE
PROGGED ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE HAS WARRANTED A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SNOW RATIOS. WHAT ONCE LOOKED TO BE A 14:1 OR 15:1 EVENT IS NOW
MORE LIKELY TO BE 10:1 (SOUTH) 14:1 (NORTH) DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER COLUMN AND INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER RIMING. THESE RATIOS
MAY GO OUT WINDOW, HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
TOMORROW'S HEAVIEST SNOW.

FINALLY, FROM A WARNING MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE, THERE IS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROPRIATE START TIME FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE EVER-INCREASING
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT, CAN EASILY ENVISION INHERITED TIMES WORKING
OUT WELL AS ACCUMULATING SNOW GRADUALLY RAMPS UP ACROSS METRO
DETROIT AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR AT LEAST
EQUALLY LIKELY THAT NOT ONLY WILL SNOW BE SLOW TO GET GOING
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS BUT A WELL-DEFINED BREAK MAY EMERGE AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE.
THUS, COULD ALSO ENVISION A SITUATION IN WHICH THE METRO AREA SEES
RELATIVELY LITTLE SNOW UNTIL THE "MAIN EVENT" ARRIVES AFTER 18Z.
AT THIS TIME, LEFT HEADLINE TIMES UNCHANGED PENDING FURTHER DATA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR COINCIDENT WITH A LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
TAKING RESIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS UNUSUALLY BRUTAL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE WORK
WEEK. WHILE NOT AS PROLONGED...THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST
STRETCH OF WEATHER SINCE THE 14-21 JANUARY 1994 ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN
DAILY RECORD LOW MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
BROKEN WITH THESE TEMPERATURES HAVING A CHANCE OF GETTING INTO THE
TOP 5 ALL TIME RECORD LOW MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THESE
RECORDS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT BEING BROKEN AT DETROIT METRO
AIRPORT AS THE COLDEST AIR WRAPS AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN AND SEEPS
NORTHEAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS STRETCH WILL ONLY GET TO AROUND ZERO...WITH LOWS WELL BELOW
ZERO. DURING THE COLDEST PART OF THE EVENT MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE -10 TO -15 F. BY WEDNESDAY THE COLDEST AIR MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO A RELATIVELY BALMY MIDDLE
TEENS.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OF -20 TO -40 FROM MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE BANDS LOOK TO SET UP OVER
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS...MIGRATING
NORTH OVER THE M 59 AND INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDORS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST PERIOD FOR LAKE
EFFECT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE DEPTHS TO 5K
FEET COUPLED WITH SUPER SATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE COLUMN INDICATING OPTIMUM GROWTH FOR LARGE DENDRITES
AND A NEARLY UNIFORM WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION IN THE LOWEST 5K FEET.
WHILE PREDICTING AMOUNTS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS FAR OUT AND THIS
FAR AWAY FROM THE LAKE CAN BE CHALLENGING...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS A
QUICK INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE HEAVIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHRINKS TO ABOUT 2-3K
FT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING THE CHANCES THAT
ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT BANDS CAN SURVIVE THE TRIP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN.

BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THIS WILL BRING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL ALSO BRING
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB
WITH THE WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS GET INTO THE 20S.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM INSTEAD OF PULLING IN COLD AIR...IT WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AROUND 30 ON
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE RELATIVE MODEL AGREEMENT TO THIS POINT...THINGS
GET A BIT MURKY NEXT SATURDAY WITH A SYSTEM EMERGING OVER THE
PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM AS ONE BIG ELONGATED TROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WARM AIR TO BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE RIO GRANDE REGION
WHILE BRINGING THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO FAR OUT TO
MAKE MUCH OF A DECISION AS TO WHICH SOLUTION IS BEST THEREFORE WILL
PUT IN LOW CHANCES GIVEN THE LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

MARINE...

THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING TOWARD NRN LAKE MI.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE HURON TONIGHT...SETTLING INTO THE SRN
BASIN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE WINDS SUN NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
GALE FORCE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR WILL
BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. GALE
FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOK LIKELY MONDAY...POSSIBLY
WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-
     MIZ075...UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO
     10 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WATCH...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 11 AM
     MONDAY TO 11 PM MONDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     GALE WATCH...FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 11 PM MONDAY.

&&

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....PK
MARINE.......SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
250 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-052000-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
250 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

THE COLDEST AIR TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN 20 YEARS WILL
SURGE INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WINTER STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW ZERO FROM MONDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS BITTERLY COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT
SQUALLS OR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL FOCUS BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE
94 AND INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDORS AND BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS TO LOCALIZED SPOTS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-052000-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
250 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EXTREMELY
COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY MAY ALSO
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1108 PM EST SAT JAN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     SNOW             HOWELL                  42.61N 83.94W
01/04/2014  M1.8 INCH        LIVINGSTON         MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            5 HOUR TOTAL

1103 PM     SNOW             WHITE LAKE              42.65N 83.50W
01/04/2014  M1.3 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            5 HOUR TOTAL AT NWS OFFICE

&&

MR