A cold front moving slowly through a warm and humid air mass produced thunderstorms with heavy rain across much of Upper Michigan from the 29th into the 30th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A cold front moving slowly through a warm and humid air mass produced thunderstorms with heavy rain across much of Upper Michigan from the 29th into the 30th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 29, 6:46 AM EST, 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 746 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION BUT A BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS STILL HANGING BACK CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING NORTH/SOUTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE A DENT IN THE EXISTING DRY AIR SEEN BETWEEN 800-550MB ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING BUT IT IS GETTING INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIPITATION IS FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300-320K SURFACES AND THE INITIAL WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WITH THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRETCHING TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN U.P. WILL BE TIED TO THE AREA OF CONVECTION/SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MAKING A SLOW PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD LIKELY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...THINK THERE WILL A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS OFF TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WONDERING IF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY. FARTHER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...A THE SURFACE-925MB TROUGH OR WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW (CURRENTLY WEST OF SIOUX FALLS) MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BETTER DEEP FORCING AND MID LEVEL FGEN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WILL RAMP POPS UP TO DEFINITE VALUES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SHIFT THEM EAST WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH. AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...HAVE TRENDED THEM BACK FOR THE MORNING HOURS TODAY (ESPECIALLY WEST) BASED OFF THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EXTRA CONVERGENCE FROM THE SECONDARY TROUGH (CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA) THAT MERGES WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS ALSO AIDED BY PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER THE WEST (175 PERCENT OF NORMAL)...WARM CLOUD LAYER OVER 11KFT...AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTION VALUES. GOING FORECAST HAS AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN (MATCHING 03Z SREF 30 PERCENT PROBS OF 1IN/12HRS) AND THAT COULD BE HIGHER WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT OF THUNDER STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING...THEN STARTED TO NOSE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEHIND THE 925-850MB WARM FRONT. TONIGHT...WILL TRANSITION TO CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING AND MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 300-800 J/KG. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 A RATHER UNSETTLED LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. BEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH STILL AROUND 11 KFT. ONLY NEGATIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD KEEP DEEPER CONVECTION FROM BEING A CONCERN. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE EVENING...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. MAIN CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO CLOSE TO NORMAL AS MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUD SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE MORNING TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND 50 KT LLJ. AT LEAST RIGHT NOW...IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...IT WOULD OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN U.P. RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND WHEN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS OVERHEAD. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST SUN NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AS A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEATHER WILL STAY GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TUE AND WED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN W-NW FLOW. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THU COULD END UP BEING FAIRLY WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. BEYOND THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE THE LOWEST CEILINGS (TO IFR) AT KCMX/KSAW WHERE THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE LIFT. AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR AT KIWD. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT KIWD/KCMX AND WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP TOO. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN THE 15-20KT RANGE. THAT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT...WHILE THE WESTERN HALF DIMINISHES BELOW 10KTS AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THAT AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KTS. AFTER LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS UP TO 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 518 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-300930- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE- GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 518 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 /418 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NONE OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WEST OF A MARQUETTE TO MENOMINEE LINE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY COULD BECOME STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-300930- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 518 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 /418 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NONE OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. FOG WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BE DENSE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY COULD BE STRONG. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LMZ221-248-250-300930- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 518 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NONE OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MRD
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
The mesonet station at Germfask measured 2.10 inches of rainfall in 36 hours.
The observer near Ironwood measured 1.94 inches of rainfall in approximately 36 hours.
The La Branche RAWS site measured 2.62 inches of rainfall in approximately 36 hours.
The Munising ASOS measured 2.21 inches of rainfall in approximately 36 hours.
The observer at Norway measured 2.12 inches of rainfall in approximately 36 hours.
There was a public report of 1.91 inches of rainfall in Silver City over approximately 36 hours.
Two separate automated rain gauges over northern Luce County measured at least 1.75 inches over approximately 36 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, August 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 536599, 537267, 537269, 537270, 537272, 537273, 537275.