Damaging Winds in Kentucky, June 10, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
459 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE OF LATE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MAIN LARGE SCALE FEATURES BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN RUNNING MUCH TOO HIGH ON POPS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPLIT
WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY SHOOTING STRAIGHT UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH THE PARENT CUT OFF LOW. WHAT/S LEFT HEADS FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LEAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A RELATIVE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL MANAGES TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT THE RELATIVELY WEAK DYNAMICS WORKING ACROSS OUR AREA
HAS RESULTED IN MUDDLED SFC FEATURES/FIELDS THAT MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
SEEING CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH PWATS...DECENT AT ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
NORM. BUT STORM MOTION IS QUITE HIGH AND LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE
LACKING UNDER SPLIT FLOW. DECENT INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONG STORMS...OR ISOLATED SEVERE GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75
TODAY. BUT FEEL FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.
CONSIDERING STORM MOTION AND PWATS...LACK OF FORCING THINKING ATTM
IS THAT WE WOULD REQUIRE TRAINING TO SEE ANY FLOODING THREATS. JUST
THE SAME ADDRESSED THESE POTENTIALS IN HWO.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER BELIEVE THERE WILL BE...IS AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR RAIN. ALSO FEEL THAT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME RAIN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT CONCERNS ARE THAT QPF TOTALS MAY NOT BE
AS ROBUST AS WE MIGHT LIKE TO SEE ON A WIDESPREAD SCALE. FORECAST
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING ROUGHLY ONE HALF INCH IN THE EAST...AROUND AN
INCH IN THE WEST FOR TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
THESE ARE PROBABLY A BIT OPTIMISTIC. USED A MODEL/GUIDANCE BLEND FOR
POPS WHILE ADDING A DECENTLY STRONG DIURNAL FLAVOR. GENERALLY STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START OUT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CUTOFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH GRADUALLY DAMPENING AND
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CUT
OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING THEN NOSING IN FROM THE GULF COAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
DIFFER IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CUTOFF.
THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE FASTER AND BRINGS ITS ENERGY CLOSER TO
OUR VICINITY BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE ECMWF
IS NOT AS STRONG AND DEVELOPS THE CUTOFF AND ITS INFLUENCE FURTHER
EAST. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT...WILL STAY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE IT
IN...HOWEVER AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN WARRANTED IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HANG UP. BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING FOR THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOW 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN MODERATE TO
THE MID 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
60S...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S LOOK ACHIEVABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD AFFECT KSME AND KLOZ FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. NOT SURE IF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT KJKL AND JSJS BUT LEFT MENTION OF SHOWERS ON
STATION FOR KJKL...MORE TO MATCH UP WITH GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL WENT
WITH HIGH END TO MID LEVEL MVFR VSBYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH
TIME DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THIS LINE OF THOUGHT MATCHES UP
WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY WELL...IT MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED ON RECENT
MODEL PERFORMANCE. AM SEEING A BIT OF FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE A BIT AS LOWER CIGS ROLL IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-111100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
LOCATION MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE OR
LOCALIZED FLOODING TODAY.

RAY