Minor river flooding occurred in response to a combination of snowmelt and heavy rain. A warm front lifted north, helping temperatures reach near 70 degrees by the 20th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Minor river flooding occurred in response to a combination of snowmelt and heavy rain. A warm front lifted north, helping temperatures reach near 70 degrees by the 20th. Ice and snowmelt ran off into the river. This runoff, combined with heavy showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front, caused a rise in the river.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 25, 2:53 PM CST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 253 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday night) ISSUED AT 158 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014 Still looking at an upper level wave moving across the area tonight. NIL features at the surface and lower trop. Hard to find WAA process, maybe weak at H7 or so. On the flip side, decent QG forcing still present H7/H5. This with average pressure deficit values still forecast to reside 10-15 mb (lift for saturation). Therefore, will keep PoPs chance category for light snow. Going to be hard to squeeze out much moisture in this setup. Confidence in any given point measuring is not over 50 percent. Where some light snow can fall, do expect a dusting is possible. Would not rule out 1/2" accumulation if a few small bands can get going enough. Not impressed with model QPF (RUC, ECMWF, GFS). 12z NAM was the most aggressive. By 09-11z, most of the moisture should be out of here with clearing skies to follow. Certainly not considering an Advisory at this time. Should the evening shift think its "travel" worthy, they can throw out a Special Weather Statement or something. Quiet weather with mainly clear skies most of Wednesday through Thursday. We will have a front come through dry Thursday morning that will only serve to reinforce the return colder air in place across the area. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/ ISSUED AT 254 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014 Two systems with the potential for winter precipitation will affect our region in the long term. The models are having great difficulty resolving these systems. In particular...there are large differences in how they handle the movement of the Arctic air mass that will be banked up over the northern states. The first system on Friday will be relatively weak...with comparatively low qpf versus the Sunday system. A weak mid level shortwave will move quickly east along our latitude...passing across the Lower Ohio Valley Friday night. Beyond that...the models have little in common. The differences seem to arise from how quickly the Arctic air mass will retreat north as the Arctic high retreats east from the Upper Ohio Valley. The first camp of models that is relatively warm is the sref and 12z ecmwf. Both these models turn the low level flow into the south and contain little qpf...generally less than one tenth inch. The other camp is the 12z gfs and gfs ensemble mean...which develop a warm front south of our region on Friday. North of the front...these models develop heavier qpf in the form of freezing rain/sleet/snow across our region. Since the ecmwf has better low level resolution and typically handles shallow cold air better...its solution will be weighed as heavily as the colder gfs. Bottom line is that this is a very low confidence forecast. Will keep the forecast as rain or snow for most of the area...and pops will be only in the chance category. Precip will end Friday night...with dry conditions on Saturday. The second precip event will be late Saturday night through early Monday. A very moist Pacific shortwave will lift northeast across the southern Plains...crossing our region on Monday morning. Once again...this is about all the models agree on. Their handling of the Arctic air mass varies considerably. There has been very little consistency from run to run or model to model...and even the ensemble means have not been consistent. A strong frontal boundary will set up somewhere in the vicinity of the Lower Ohio Valley Saturday night. Widespread precip will develop by Sunday along the boundary. Precip type will initially be rain across much of the forecast area under strong south to southwest 850 mb flow. The models differ in how quickly the frontal boundary sags back to the south Sunday and Sunday night. The 12z gfs and gfs ensemble mean are the warmer models...a complete reversal from the Friday system. These models have most of the qpf ending before a changeover to freezing or frozen precip. The ecmwf...which was the warmer model for Friday...shows much colder air seeping southeast before most of the qpf occurs. This would imply significant ice and snow. Again...this is another very low confidence forecast. Will leave a variety of precip types in the forecast. Pops will be raised considerably into the likely category. Following the departure of the system...colder and drier air will arrive for Tuesday. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 158 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014 Generally VFR cigs expected tonight 3-7k/ft range. Some sct light snow showers possible, especially north of a KMDH-KOWB line. Gusty N/NW winds will develop especially after 06z (possibly 20-25kt range). Winds will subside Wednesday with SKC conditions developing in the morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CN LONG TERM....MY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 200 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-261100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 200 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THIS TIME IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO BE SPECIFIC. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SNOW REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Ohio River. Low-lying woods and fields near the river were underwater. The flooding continued into early March.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 499871.