Hail in Kansas, October 2, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FINE LINE ON RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BARTON...ELLSWORTH...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. STARTING TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL
IN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY  APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS ENERGY CONTINUES LIFTS
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR TODAY...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY INHIBIT SURFACE
HEATING AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER WITH STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE
EXPECT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
INITIALLY BE LARGE HAIL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE RANGING FROM
2000-3000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 40-50KTS. STRAIGHT
LINE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT ONCE THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL TO FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
STORMS CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AREAS OF PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. SATURDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A GORGEOUS FALL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP
INTO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RITZMAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE KS MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF THE KCNU TAF SITE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA IN SW MO...SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

NEXT CONCERN WILL A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING
THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY LOCATED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. SEEING SOME TRANSIENT IFR CIGS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FRONT...THAT WILL AFFECT THE KHUT/KSLN TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE MOVING EAST. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING PUSH THIS
FRONT EAST-SOUTHEAST IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN KS. THIS IMPULSE
WILL INCREASE LIFT UNDER THE RESIDENT COLD CORE LEADING TO ELEVATED
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS
INITIALLY CENTRAL KS...NEAR THE KRSL/KSLN TAF SITES. THEN FURTHER
EAST LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AS WELL.

THINK THIS SHRA ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE KS. BUT RAPID PROGRESSION OF
FRONT THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO WILL GO WITH JUST SOME POST FRONTAL VCSH FOR KCNU
FOR NOW.

CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...AS COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 06Z/FRI...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  64  37 /  50  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      68  46  64  36 /  50  10  10   0
NEWTON          70  46  63  36 /  50  10  10   0
ELDORADO        74  47  63  36 /  60  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  48  65  38 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         65  43  61  35 /  60  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      65  44  62  36 /  60  10  10   0
SALINA          66  45  60  36 /  60  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       67  46  61  36 /  60  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  51  66  37 /  90  40   0   0
CHANUTE         82  50  63  35 /  90  40  10   0
IOLA            80  50  62  35 /  90  40  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    84  50  64  36 /  90  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
823 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-031330-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
823 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 135. THE THREAT
WILL SHIFT GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY LATE
MORNING...EXITING SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BY LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE THIS
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BY LATE MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 135.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CDJ/ADK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
444 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ100-021030-
LABETTE-
444 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 530 AM CDT

* AT 443 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALTAMONT...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
  PARSONS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARSONS...OSWEGO AND LABETTE.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9532 3738 9509 3701 9507 3700 9544
      3722 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0945Z 232DEG 34KT 3722 9528

KETCHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
743 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ069-083-092-093-021330-
BUTLER-COWLEY-SEDGWICK-SUMNER-
743 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT

* AT 741 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CONWAY SPRINGS...OR 17 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF WELLINGTON.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DOWNTOWN WICHITA...VIOLA...CLEARWATER...OXFORD...BELLE PLAINE...
  UDALL...MULVANE...HAYSVILLE...WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPORT...WEST
  WICHITA...DERBY...SOUTH WICHITA...MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE...ROSE
  HILL...EAST WICHITA...NORTHEAST WICHITA...PARK CITY...ANDOVER...
  DOUGLASS AND WELLINGTON AIRPORT.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3787 9733 3758 9684 3711 9732 3743 9778
TIME...MOT...LOC 1243Z 222DEG 28KT 3744 9761

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
747 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ093-098-021330-
CHAUTAUQUA-COWLEY-
747 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  EASTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT

* AT 744 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HARDY...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST
  OF WINFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DEXTER...CEDAR VALE...MAPLE CITY AND CAMBRIDGE.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 9696 3748 9655 3748 9654 3729 9653
      3730 9634 3730 9633 3710 9636 3699 9663
      3699 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1247Z 235DEG 26KT 3703 9680

KETCHAM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
830 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     HAIL             3 SSW DOWNTOWN WICHITA  37.65N 97.37W
10/02/2014  E0.25 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
830 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ093-021400-
COWLEY-
830 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 826 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UDALL...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF WINFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROCK.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 9714 3747 9715 3748 9683 3747 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 1330Z 236DEG 31KT 3739 9707

PEARCE