Flash Flooding and Hail in Kansas, June 30, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2014

...Updated the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

RAP and NAM verified well with the 18z surface analysis with the
surface cold front across southwest Kansas. A surface
trough/dry line extended south of this cold front into the
panhandle of Oklahoma and Texas. Warm air was located above these
surface boundaries with the RAP still suggesting a 700mb
temperature of greater than +16c lingers across southwest Kansas.
Given these warm temperatures any convection does develop along
these two boundaries am expecting this will occur after 23z.
Scattered convection is expected to develop along the cold front
late today. 0-6km shear is forecast to be 30 to 35 knots and the
CAPE values are expected to exceed 3500 j/kg at 00z Tuesday. Given
the instability and shear early this evening any storm that does
develop may become severe with the main hazard begin strong
damaging winds and golf ball size hail.

Thunderstorms will become more widespread across southwest and
south central Kansas early tonight. The latest RAP, NAM, and GFS
remain in good agreement keeping an area of moisture and improving
850mb-700mb frontogenesis over southwest Kansas after 00z Tuesday
as an upper level trough moves across Central High Plains.
Preciptable water values at 00z Tuesday were forecast to be at 1
to 1.5 inches. Given the forcing and moisture just north of the
cold front across southwest and south central Kansas early tonight
along with improving upper level dynamics front ahead of the upper
trough and near location of the right exit region of an upper
level jet will continue to favor thunderstorms increasing in areal
coverage between 00z Tuesday and 06z Tuesday with periods of heavy
rainfall being possible. At this time based on the location of
where the heavier rainfall is expected overnight will not be
issuing a flash flood watch but will mention flooding concerns in
the hazardous weather outlook.

Precipitation will taper off from northwest to southeast early
Tuesday as the upper level trough crosses western Kansas. 850mb
temperature trends from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday suggests
highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. Given lingering afternoon
cloud cover near the Oklahoma border will trim temperatures down a
few degrees here from the later guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave dropping
southeast out of the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains
early Wednesday then turning more eastward into the Central Plains
by Wednesday night. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will slowly
transition across the Intermountain West turning the flow aloft
more northwesterly across the Western High Plains toward the end
of the week. As the flow aloft weakens, precip chances will be
limited across much of central and western Kansas. However, a
near stationary frontal boundary just south of the Oklahoma border
may provide the focus for a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms
near and along the Oklahoma state line Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The northwesterly flow aloft will persist through the
end of the week while the frontal boundary to our south extends
back north into eastern Colorado. As H5 vort maxima crest the
ridge and drop southeast off the Rockies, thunderstorm development
is likely lee of the front range each afternoon Thursday and
Friday. A few isolated thunderstorms could potentially drift into
western Kansas each evening.

Below normal temperatures are expected Wednesday as surface high
pressure moves southeast out of the Northern Plains into the Central
Plains of eastern Kansas. This will reinforce the slightly cooler
air mass in place across western Kansas with H85 temperatures
ranging from the upper teens(C) across central Kansas to the
lower 20s(C) closer to the Colorado border. Even with decreasing
cloud cover expected, look for highs struggling to reach the 80s(F)
across central and portions of southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon.
A gradual warming trend is then forecast through the weekend as
upper level ridging approaches from the west, pushing highs back
into the 90s(F) by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

This evening will start out breezy with northeast winds averaging
15g25kts. Sct clouds will increase and the chance for
thunderstorms will significantly increase in the DDC and GCK areas
within the next 2 hours. Thunderstorm winds will be VRB20g30kt,
and the vsbys could go down into the MVFR range during the
convection. Cigs during storms should also be in the MVFR range,
around OVC040CB. A few storms may linger into the 06Z time frame,
but after that, expect northwest winds around 10 knots, and cigs
in the OVC050 range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  82  60  84 /  60  30  10  10
GCK  62  82  59  81 /  30  20  10  10
EHA  62  78  59  79 /  70  30  20  10
LBL  64  80  61  82 /  80  30  20  10
HYS  62  84  59  80 /  20  20   0   0
P28  68  83  64  86 /  90  40  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
239 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-011015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
239 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 /139 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 5 PM ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF A COLD FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL HAIL ALONG WITH 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 156. THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL LINE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WHILE EXACT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH OF LINE FROM JOHNSON
TO LACROSSE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

BURGERT