Heavy Rain in Kansas, July 16 to 17, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
705 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

A strong upper level shortwave trough in northwest flow aloft is
currently moving into northeast Colorado and will move into western
Kansas this afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue to blossom ahead of the wave in an area of low level warm
air advection across much of western and into south central Kansas
this morning. More showers and thunderstorms then develop mainly
east of Dodge City in the afternoon with the front end of the upper
trough and vorticity lobe. Will have nearly 100 percent chances for
rainfall most areas except far west this morning, then tapering down
in the afternoon. The main upper level trough then swings across
western Kansas overnight with a continued chances for more showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Storm total rainfall into tonight may be
an inch or two, with locally heavier possible. Lesser amounts are
forecast however over far western Kansas near the Colorado border.

Severe weather does not look good for western Kansas this afternoon
with the NAM model way over doing surface based CAPE with some
elevated CAPE possible around Elkhart. Current thoughts are we will
be strongly capped with cold moist air at the ground under the cap.
Some elevated hail may still be possible far west near Elkhart. Also
with moist southeast upslope surface flow will probably keep our far
west in the cold sector with lots of stratus clouds. Highs today
look cool and only in the mid to upper 60s, except possible low to
mid 70s around Elkhart. NAM guidance for Elkhart in the upper 80s
will be negated at this time and is closer to much cooler RAP
forecast. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s tonight
with cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

Rain will be coming to an end sometime Thursday afternoon as the
upper level trough axis passes through western Kansas. Low clouds
will likely persist all day, and this should prevent temperatures
from rising much above the 60s. The record low, maximum temperature
is 73F for Thursday and this record will likely be broken. Thursday
night will be cool as skies clear and winds become light. Lows ought
to fall into the lower to mid 50s if skies clear sufficiently, and
this would break the record low of 57.

After Thursday, upper level troughing will develop near the pacific
northwest, with ridging over west Texas and New Mexico. Western
Kansas will be on the southern edge of the westerlies. Lee troughing
will allow for rich moisture return by Saturday and especially by
Sunday, with dewpoints rising into the mid 60s Saturday and 67-73F
range by Sunday. This will lead to moderate surface based CAPE ahead
of the lee trough Saturday and moderate to high CAPE by Sunday.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the lee trough and then
progress into western Kansas. Any isolated storms that develop could
be severe with very large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures
will be slow to warm given the very moist airmass, with upper 70s
to near 80F Friday, mid to high 80s by Saturday and lower 90s by
Sunday. Locations in extreme western Kansas may be slightly warmer
all these days due to the proximity to the lee trough.

The upper level ridge may amplify a little more into western Kansas
by early next week and this could lead to even warmer temperatures and
even smaller chances for thunderstorms along the lee trough in far
western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

Thunderstorms will affect KDDC through 14z. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR
CIGS will generally prevail at the TAF sites through 06z.
Thunderstorms may also be in the vicinity of KHYS after 13z. An
upper level disturbance will approach western Kansas tonight, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially after 06z. CIGS
will gradually lower through the night, with LIFR CIGS possible
after 06z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  58  68  55 /  90  80  50  10
GCK  68  57  68  54 /  40  80  40  10
EHA  75  57  70  57 /  70  80  40  10
LBL  72  58  68  57 /  60  80  40  10
HYS  68  58  72  54 /  70  70  40  10
P28  71  59  70  58 /  80  80  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
519 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171030-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
519 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014 /419 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES, ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO HUGOTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY
WITH LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED WEST OF A LAKIN TO HUGOTON LINE
MAINLY AFTER 2 PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06