Hail in Illinois, October 7, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014

Another strong mid level impulse moving southeast toward the Lower
Ohio Valley this morning is responsible for widespread showers with
some isolated elevated convection. The strongest hail cores early
this morning have been over the Ozarks of south central MO. The RAP
model indicates a strong feed of moisture and elevated instability
into these storms /near 50 knots at 850 mb/. Mid level temps are
still very cold...producing steep 850/500 mb lapse rates over 7
C/km. The RAP indicates the 850 jet will translate eastward across
western KY early this morning. Some elevated hailers may affect
parts of our area early this morning...along with a widespread area
of light to moderate rain. Will go with categorical pops for many
areas this morning. Once the shortwave moves east of our area by
midday...the precip will diminish from west to east.

Similar to Monday...another surface trough/weak cold front will move
east across the Lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Once
again...there is some potential for isolated convection to develop
along this trough during the peak heating hours. Expect coverage to
be scattered at best...since the mid level shortwave will be
departing to our east and low level convergence will be weakening
along the dissipating surface trough. Despite very marginal
instability with mixed layer capes around 500 j/kg...an isolated
wind or hail event is possible given steep mid level lapse rates and
strong winds aloft /over 60 knots at 500 mb/.

Any lingering convection will end early this evening as the surface
trough moves south of Kentucky and the low levels stabilize.
Otherwise...mainly clear skies are expected tonight as drier air
arrives on light north winds. Low temps will fall into the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

On Wednesday...weak surface high pressure will pass almost directly
overhead. Abundant sunshine is expected...along with light winds and
seasonably warm temps in the 70s.

On Wednesday night and Thursday...a surface warm front is forecast
to develop over the Lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri. Clouds
will increase...along with the chance of showers. Instability is
forecast to be very minimal until the southwest low level flow
increases Thursday night. Therefore...thunder chances look very low
at least until Thursday night.

On Thursday night...the warm front should become quasi stationary
over southwest Indiana and southern Illinois. Showers and storms
should become rather numerous along the front as low level
convergence sharpens. However...most qpf guidance has decreased
somewhat...possibly because the main upper shortwave trough will
still be hanging back over the western high Plains.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014

The extended forecast continues to appear quite wet as a west-to-
east sfc frontal boundary will be in the general vicinity of the PAH
forecast area initially. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean was favored
by WPC for this forecast package, and this was generally followed,
especially late in the weekend and early next week, when it has a
much more amplified pattern across the CONUS than the GFS/GEM.

While the mid level flow over our region will be quasizonal through
the first half of the weekend, the nrn stream pattern should have
periodic impulses of shrtwv energy moving through, generating
intervals of rainfall, with little instability available for tstm
development. However, copious tropical Pacific moisture should allow
the possibility of heavy rainfall rates.

If the ECMWF forecast pans out, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will be shoved nwd as a warm front late Sunday and Sunday night,
followed by a deepening wave of low sfc pressure moving into the mid
MS river valley. The strength of this amplification is uncertain at
this time, but coverage of tstms will probably increase by Sunday.
Heavy rainfall rates are possible, and shear parameters suggest that
a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.

Based on this forecast, there should be a warm-up to above-average
temps by Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014

Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will end from
west to east this morning. Prevailing conditions will remain vfr
during these showers...but occasional periods of mvfr are likely.
Will mention vcts at the kevv/kowb sites due to clusters of storms
in southern Illinois.

Gusty west to southwest winds in the wake of the system will bring
drier air this afternoon. A few isolated showers and storms are
possible after 18z...but they should be mainly southeast of the
kpah/kowb areas.

Gusty winds will diminish around sunset. Light winds and mostly
clear skies overnight may lead to a little ground fog...mainly at
kcgi. Appears too shallow and patchy to mention in taf.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DAB
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
419 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HAIL. A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER REGION OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PROLONGED
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU TO OWENSBORO. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
845 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

ILZ076>078-INZ081-082-071430-
EDWARDS IL-GIBSON IN-PIKE IN-WABASH IL-WAYNE IL-
845 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN EDWARDS AND NORTHERN WABASH
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN GIBSON AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 842 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARKERSBURG...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF ALBION...
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MOUNT CARMEL...PRINCETON...WEST SALEM...LANCASTER...PATOKA...
  ALLENDALE AND HAZLETON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3857 8814 3858 8765 3850 8764 3847 8775
      3842 8773 3846 8765 3846 8760 3850 8760
      3849 8756 3852 8754 3851 8750 3854 8746
      3854 8739 3830 8750 3853 8821 3861 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 1345Z 288DEG 53KT 3858 8802