Numerous thunderstorms preceded a cold front as it moved east across the Mississippi Valley. A 500 mb trough over the southern Plains advanced east-northeast, providing support for thunderstorm development.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Numerous thunderstorms preceded a cold front as it moved east across the Mississippi Valley. A 500 mb trough over the southern Plains advanced east-northeast, providing support for thunderstorm development. An isolated damaging wind gust accompanied the well-organized line of thunderstorms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 2, 5:42 PM CST, 3 hours 13 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 642 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 639 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014 Scattered showers and tstms were moving across parts of the PAH forecast area this afternoon, as forecasted. So far, the convection has remained under severe limits, with limited bulk shear but increasing low level moisture. Dewpoints have reached the 70s over much of the area. Will continue to monitor. The big story will be what to expect with a congealing squall line in central MO that was coming this way, driven by a significant mid/upper level shrtwv digging through the central CONUS. As we slowly lose lower trop instability in the evening, models indicate bulk shear will actually increase, so the severe wx parameters will be a bit out of phase. Mid level lapse rates remain modest at best. Damaging wind gusts are possible primarily west of the MS River, along with some hail up to an inch in diameter. After 06Z, severe wx potential will be greatly reduced as the system sweeps the rest of the way ewd through our region. The associated cold front should be through the entire forecast region by 15Z Fri. A secondary opportunity for some showers will be Fri afternoon mainly in the nrn half of the region, associated with the main axis of the strong mid/upper level trof/low. Otherwise expect dry wx after sunset Fri, with very noticeably cooler temps and dewpoints through the first half of the weekend. At this time, frost in the nrn half of the region does not appear likely due to lack of moisture and wind. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 340 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014 The extended forecast guidance is in reasonably good agreement, but some significant issues have yet to be resolved, especially with disturbances diving down the backside of the large upper-level trough. Early Sunday, winds will be out of the south, ahead of a weak surface front/trough associated with a disturbance diving southeast toward the region. The GFS, GEM, and ECMWF all generate some QPF with this disturbance Sunday night and especially Monday. PoPs have increased Monday up to 40%. The main issue between the GFS and the other medium range models, is with the next more substantial disturbance diving south toward the region Monday night. The GEM and the 00Z ECMWF take this energy and carve out a smaller-scale trough, in the base of the larger-scale trough, over the Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast states. This results in a more wrapped up system that is slower to push east of our region. If this southern system develops, showers and possibly even thunderstorms could linger in the east well into Tuesday. The GFS is not as amplified with its troughing, and is more progressive, basically pushing any tangible rain east of the area by 12Z Tuesday. Will push PoPs up to 50% over much of the area Monday night and add in some low chance PoPs for the east Tuesday. The GFS develops more QPF along a warm front mainly in the vicinity of I-64 Wednesday night and Thursday, while the 00Z ECMWF does not. Will try to add just a slight chance PoP in the far north just in case the GFS is correct. Won't be surprised if this goes away in the next day or two. Still should see a gradual warming trend through the period, but it may be muted a bit from the previous forecast due to the wetter Monday forecast, and the slower ECMWF solution with the upper trough. && .AVIATION... Issued at 639 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014 Isolated convection ahead of the main line will impact mainly KCGI terminal with tempo IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs. The main line moves in on all terminals with the front later tonite, and likewise yields a potential for MVFR cigs/vsbys with tempo IFR vsbys if a strong storm moves overhead. The front makes passage later tonight with westerlies/northwesterlies tmrw morning and an eventual clear out heading into the planning period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 850 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-031000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 850 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 200 AM. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR DETAILS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL 1100 PM. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE FOR THE WATCH AREAS THIS EVENING.
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 67 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:54 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A weather station maintained by the Illinois Department of Transportation measured a wind gust to 59 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, October 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 541794.