High Surf in Hawaii, November 8 to 10, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT NOV 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER MAUI COUNTY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE DOWN TO
THE BIG ISLAND AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE FRONTS WAKE. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND GENERALLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS AT
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHT TIME LAND BREEZES OVER MOST AREAS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS MAUI COUNTY. PASSING
SHOWERS...MAINLY LIGHT...ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SOME LIGHT MISTY SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER
NORTH FACING SLOPES FOR A BRIEF TIME BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. IN FACT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S AT
SEA LEVEL WITH THE LAST TIME THIS BEING OBSERVED AT THE HONOLULU
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON MAY 25 OF THIS YEAR. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO POSSIBLY DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S WHICH IS LOWER THAN
ITS BEEN FOR A LONG WHILE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD AS ANOTHER
FRONT FAR TO THE NORTHWEST NUDGES IT CLOSER TO THE STATE. THUS
DAYTIME SEABREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES WILL PREVAIL. LITTLE
IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW IT STALLING JUST NORTH OF KAUAI. SOME MOISTURE MAY GET DRAWN UP
FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWING
THAT THE BIG ISLAND MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...REACHING THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. OAHU
IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND AND WILL SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE CLOUD BAND WILL BRING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAUI COUNTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MT OBSCURATION REMAINS FOR MAUI COUNTY. THE EARLY MORNING
SOUNDING FROM LIHUE INDICATED MOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND AIRMET TANGO
CONTINUES FROM KAUAI TO MAUI COUNTY.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG
WITH AND INCREASE IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CAUSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST EXPOSED AREAS FROM MAUI COUNTY
WESTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD DOWN TO MOST OF THE REMAINING
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ABOVE THE 10 FOOT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NEW NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL COMBINED WITH LOCALLY GENERATED WILL
PROVIDE FOR ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THUS A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RATHER LARGE...AND LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL...WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PEAK LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS AND WILL LIKELY
APPROACH LOW END WARNING LEVELS ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES
OF OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY
FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL.

&&

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...MORRISON