High Surf in Hawaii, January 29 to 30, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE JAN 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE BIG ISLAND...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MAUI COUNTY...THROUGH EARLY
PART OF WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE ISLANDS SATURDAY...BRINGING POSSIBLE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS STATEWIDE
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING EAST THROUGH THE ISLANDS
IS BRINGING SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO THE EASTERN
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG ISLAND. AS A RESULT...LAYERED CLOUDS
WITH MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND IN THE
COMING HOURS...THOUGH MUCH OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW AFFECTING
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BIG ISLAND. MAUI COUNTY CONTINUES
TO SEE ITS SHARE OF SHOWERS AS WELL...THOUGH WITH THE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...MUCH OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING BRISK
ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS...LIMITING THE DURATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS. SINCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE
BIG ISLAND...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT ISLAND
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR HEAVY SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BIG ISLANDS AS WELL
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING STRONG
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER REST OF THE ISLANDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREA. THE WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR LANAI THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ALSO BROUGHT STRONG WINDS
TO THE BIG ISLAND INTERIOR AND SUMMITS AS WELL. A WIND ADVISORY NOW
ALSO COVERS BOTH THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS AND THE BIG ISLAND INTERIOR
SECTION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY AS WELL...PROVIDING MORE SHOWERS. A CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAVERSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND MAY LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH TRADE WIND SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED FOR MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND AREA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERLY AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. THIS PENDING
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE STATE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NNE-SSW FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND WHILE A NNE-SSW TROUGH ALOFT NEAR OAHU MOVES SE SLOWLY.
A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE MVFR AND MT
OBSC...AND ALSO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHT ICING NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND. STRONG NE WINDS ON THE W SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL TURB ON ALL ISLANDS AND THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PRODUCE TURB BTN
150 AND FL300 STATEWIDE.

AIRMETS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MT OBSC ON THE BIG ISLAND AND
THE ISLES OF MAUI COUNTY...FOR OCCASIONAL SEVERE LOW LEVEL TURB S OF
THE MT FOR ALL ISLANDS...AND FOR MID-LEVEL TURB STATEWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH SWELL EXPECTED TO BUILD OVERNIGHT AND PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO NORTH FACING SHORES
ON WEDNESDAY. SURF WILL LOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE WEEKEND. A LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES BEGINNING SUNDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS...DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY FOR WINDY
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AS WINDS MAY REMAIN
LOCALLY BREEZY THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST THURSDAY
FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON HST WEDNESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON HST WEDNESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR LANAI AND BIG ISLAND
INTERIOR AND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.

&&

AVIATION...KINEL
REST...HUI