High Surf in Hawaii, April 4 to 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
953 AM HST FRI APR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
TODAY. GUSTY TRADES SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND SEA BREEZES SATURDAY WILL PRECEDE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE
STATE THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE POCKETS
OF STRATOCUMULUS AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE...WITH SPARSE
AND SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE MORNING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE.

TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A SLOW DECLINE TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS
A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THIS
WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY AND PART OF MONDAY. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WEAK WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE BACK BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE S THRU W OF MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS DUE TO THE
BRISK TRADE WINDS. WINDS AND TURBULENCE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
WINDWARD SLOPES AND WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS ON THE INDIVIDUAL ISLES
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TRADE SHOWERS. OTHER SECTIONS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAD
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES TODAY WITH SMALLER SURF EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.

FRESH WNW SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY PUSHING SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH
FACING BEACHES INTO THE 14-18 FT FACE HEIGHT RANGE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW DECREASE. SURF HEIGHTS ON NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF MOST ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
IT WILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...CANTIN
AVIATION...BEDAL