High Surf in Guam, January 6 to 11, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
322 PM CHST SUN JAN 5 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS FAR
SOUTH AS TINIAN AND SAIPAN. FURTHER EAST...AREAS OF TRADE-WIND
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT MAINLY EAST OF 155E. SEAS ARE AROUND 6 FEET AT
THE BUOYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR TINIAN
AND SAIPAN...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE HAVE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY AND
ISOLATED FOR ROTA AND GUAM. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE
AREA...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TRADES AND 5-7 FT SEAS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH TUE...AFTER
WHICH TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH AT TIMES WITH A RISE OF
1-2 FEET IN COMBINED SEAS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE EASTERN END OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REACHES EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTH OF CHUUK AT 2N154E
TO END SOUTH OF KOSRAE AT EQ162E. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A FRONT THAT
IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST TO EAST OF JAPAN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A TRADE-WIND SURGE NORTH OF THE TROUGH WILL FIRE SCATTERED SHOWERS
SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH
THE TROUGH...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOSRAE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF POHNPEI BUT WILL
BE CLOSE TO ENOUGH FOR POHNPEI TO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THE
ACTIVITY WESTWARD...WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH
LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. A DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL DOMINATE
AT MAJURO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LINGERING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL SUSTAIN HIGH SURF ON
KOSRAE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SURF SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND COULD
FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER WESTERN YAP WATERS AND NORTHEASTERN KOROR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS WESTWARD USHERING
IN DRIER CONDITIONS AT YAP BY MONDAY MORNING. A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF KOROR AND YAP...STRETCHING WESTWARD
FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR 3N130E TO A SECOND CIRCULATION SOUTH
OF CHUUK NEAR 2N154E. A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR POHNPEI IS MOVING
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF CHUUK. WITH A BROAD AREA OF MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE OVER CHUUK...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE STATE TONIGHT.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS A FRONT THAT IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST TO EAST OF JAPAN
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION SOUTH OF CHUUK TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE CIRCULATION LIFTS FURTHER NORTH...IT WILL
PROLONG AN UNSTABLE PATTERN OVER CHUUK THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH AND CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WESTWARD AND WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED OVER
CHUUK TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THE
CIRCULATION SOUTH OF CHUUK SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND MOVING TOWARD KOROR AND YAP. THIS WILL PROLONG UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AT KOROR THROUGH THURSDAY AND PRODUCE INCREASING
CONVECTION OVER YAP LATE IN THE WEEK. PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LOCATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
CHOSE TO STAY WITH ISOLATED FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE PATTERN
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE