Damaging Wind in Georgia, June 27, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST CONDITIONS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
GENERALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT AND OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON PATTERN
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...AND CLOSER TO AN OLD BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE LAKELANDS THAT WAS ALSO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MORNING MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IF MID LEVEL
DECK CONTINUES TO THIN AND WE CAN FIND A TRIGGER/FOCUS. MEANWHILE...
CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL AS PW WAS ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND STORM MOTION
WILL BE SLOW...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANCHORING OF CELLS. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RUN COOLER THAN FCST DUE TO PERSISTENT/THICKER CLOUDS UP
UNTIL THIS POINT...SO MAX TEMP WAS CUT A FEW DEGREES.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG
THE EAST COAST WHILE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FCST
AREA ON SATURDAY. A VORT CENTER STUCK IN THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. IT IS AT LOW
LEVELS WHERE THE FCST IS PROBLEMATIC. ALTHO LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOVEMENT OF THE 850
MB LOW OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONES OVER THE SE AND TO THE N
WILL BRING A COL REGION OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. THAT WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
NORTHERLY AND WRECK THE BETTER MECHANICAL FORCING LATER TONIGHT...
AND MAY ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE PRECIP COVERAGE. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
THE MAIN CONCERN. ON THE ONE HAND...THE PW IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 150 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING WETTER OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE LESS THAN IDEAL. DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE MODELS SUGGEST BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB CIRCULATION OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT THAT IS
SHORT LIVED. BOTTOM LINE IS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP POP
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ENTERTAIN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL NORTH
AND NEAR NORMAL SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST BUT SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TO EAST OF FLORIDA BY
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY WILL BE WEDGED
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BUT MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING THE WEDGE-LIKE PRESSURE PATTERN TO BEGIN TO
ERODE ON SUNDAY...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPING ON
MONDAY. WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA....WIND FIELDS
ACTUALLY FEATURE A CULL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NOT A STRONG
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA IS EVIDENT AT
925 MB OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. MODELS ARE
KEYING ON THIS TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IN THAT AREA. WILL
CERTAINLY FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODEL QPF IS NOT EXCESSIVE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT AT THIS POINT WE
DON'T FEEL IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK ON SUN...BUT STILL EXPECT SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE WEAKLY CONVERGENCT FLOW. ON
MONDAY...H850 FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY DOWNSLOPE...BUT AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE HINDERD BY CLOUDS/PRECIP ON
SUNDAY SO THEY SHOULD TOP OUT JUST SHY OF NORMAL. BETTER INSOLATION
ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARDS FROM THE MIDWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...DRIVING A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE CWA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ARRIVE
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SOME DRYING TO THE CWA. A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARDS ON
THURSDAY...DRIVING A SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDING
SOME REINFORCING DRY AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FORCING FROM
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK HOWEVER...WITH MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHT QPF RESPONSE OVER THE CWA. PRECIP WILL FOLLOW A
MORE DIURNAL TREND WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE DRIER AIRMASS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW LEND
THEMSELVES TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND CHANCE
POPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD THROUGH 19Z-20Z...BUT THINK MID
LEVEL DECK WILL THIN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO FORM AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRIGGER NEW STORMS. A TEMPO WAS KEPT FOR TSRA
STARTING AT 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT IN REALITY THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL EXTEND FARTHER INTO THE EVENING. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PRODUCTIVE LATER THIS EVENING
AND SO THE CEILING WAS LOWERED INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT 03Z.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR AS IDEAL OF AN UPSLOPE
FLOW AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO...THE TAF WAS KEPT MVFR FOR NOW.
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AT ANY TIME OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUD CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT NE AWAY FROM STORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM OVER THE MTNS INITIALLY...BUT WILL EXPAND OUT FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ALL LOCATIONS GET A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT
SOME POINT AND THIS SHOULD BE THOUGHT OF AS A PLACEHOLDER...FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CEILING AT KAVL WILL PROBABLY LIFT TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON BUT FALL BACK DOWN AGAIN IN THE EVENING. APART FROM
THAT...THE FCST IS VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DEVELOPING LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE. FURTHER RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING AFTERNOON TSRA AND
ALSO IN FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING. THE EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRES WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     MED   72%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   73%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   70%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   70%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   73%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...ARK/VISIN
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-280900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
448 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF ATLANTIC COAST AND BRING HIGH AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS PROBABLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE I-77 CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STATIONARY OR REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

NCZ064-065-SCZ002-003-271915-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...EAST CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TABLE ROCK STATE PARK...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CAESARS HEAD...
  JONES GAP STATE PARK...
  MARIETTA...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3514 8279 3524 8243 3502 8237 3499 8247
      3497 8274

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

GAZ029-271945-
ELBERT-
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ELBERT COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM
EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELBERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ELBERTON...
  FORTSONIA...

SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3398 8266 3397 8276 3397 8279 3398 8282
      3398 8286 3400 8293 3409 8303 3421 8275
      3415 8272 3414 8270 3396 8256 3396 8258

ARK