Tornado and Lightning Strike in Wisconsin, June 27, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
126 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE
LATER TONIGHT OUT WEST.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
IOWA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.  ACTIVITY IS
MOVING NORTHEAST VERY SLOWLY...AROUND 12-15KTS.  THE 05Z HRRR DOES
LIFT THIS AREA NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS IT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TOWARD 18Z...IT REDEVELOPS THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKENS
WITH TIME. SOME CHANCE ACTIVITY OVER NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS WELL.  SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND
HEATING WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO DEPICT THIS FAIRLY WELL.  WILL HAVE TO
KEEP HIGHER POPS TO THE EAST...AND MAY BE CATEGORICAL THROUGH PART
OF THE MORNING.

WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE EAST EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME SORT OF COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
RIDE EAST AHEAD OF FRONT/SHORT WAVE.  TIMING APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z SAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WEST...LOWER TO THE
EAST.  OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVE TO BE ACTIVE...NO SURPRISE THERE THIS
SUMMER...BUT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. FIRST...THERE WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED WITH THE TIMING A BIT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS COULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES...IN ADDITION TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND MBE VELOCITIES OF 5 KTS OR LESS ALL SPELL
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. KEPT POPS GENERALLY THE SAME FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FIRST TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
DRYING EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY
WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD ATOP A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
INCREASING BULK SHEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
NORTHEAST TO ECNTRL MN AND WESTERN WI. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY BEFORE ACTIVITY CONGEALS INTO A LINEAR
MCS DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
BE IF/WHERE THE LINE BECOMES WEST-EAST ORIENTATED OVERNIGHT.
TRAINING AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR.

DEPENDING HOW THE MCS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT EVOLVES...THERE COULD BE
RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SRN MN AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WI. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND A DRY
SLOT WILL CLEAR THIS AREA OUT. FURTHER NORTH...CYCLONIC MOIST FLOW
MAY SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MN...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE STATE
TUESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FORECAST FOR ALL OF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS
IT ALSO LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CLOUDS WILL
FOLLOW THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KMSP...
AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTHEAST...AND
ALSO WEST OF THE METRO. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
HIGHER PROBABILITIES CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ALSO...THE LOWEST
CEILINGS WILL BE NORTH OF MSP TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME TO NOT
HAVE CONFIDENCE TO RAISE THEM ABOVE 1500FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH AFTERNOON IFR/TSRA+ POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W AT 15G20KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
281630-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1118 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS WITH A QUICK INCH OF RAINFALL. RIVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE WITH MANY LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING VERY HIGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY BRINGING A HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT. SOME STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN COULD BE SEVERE WHERE A SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE.

THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND EXPANDING EAST INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WITH THE THREAT
BECOMING MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON THE
MINNESOTA RIVER...CROW RIVER...AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY.