Hail in Georgia, June 19, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 PM EDT UPDATE...ONGOING CONVECTION HAS BECOME QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FTHILLS. UPPER BROAD
S/W IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION AND ALLOWING THE STORMS ACROSS THE
FTHILLS TO TAP INTO VERY HIGH VALUES OF DCAPE. THE CLT TDWR
INDICATED A WIDE AREA OF VELOCITIES WITH ONE STORM ON THE ORDER OF
50+ KTS...NO DOUBT KNOCKING DOWN SEVERAL TREES AND PWR LINES.
THUS...A WIND THREAT SEEMS MORE PROBABLE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
PRETTY MUCH THE LARGEST REPORTED SO FAR...EVEN WITH VERY TALL AND
ROBUST STORMS. MAKES SENSE WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM MLVLS AND HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS. WILL EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER THE
I/77 CORRIDOR THROUGH 23Z WITH STORMS ALSO DEVELOPING SOUTH OVER NE
GA AND ACROSS NRN UPSTATE.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...ISOLD DEEP CONVECTION HAS KICKED OFF OVER THE
HIGHER MTNS...WITH CELLS LINED UP UPSTREAM ACRS THE GREAT TENN VALLEY
AS WELL...UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE OVER THE SERN
STATES. ACTIVITY ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BDY ACRS FAR ERN KY AND SRN WV
STILL SAGGING SOUTH. LATEST MESO MODELS SHOW BOTH OF THESE LINEAR
FEATURES MOVING TOWARD OUR CWFA THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN. INFLOW
WINDS ARE WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINES IS STRONG AS ONE
MIGHT EXPECT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MESO GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MORE OF A
PROPAGATION INTO OUR AREA AND SUBSEQUENT REDEVELOPMENT ALONG REMNANT
BOUNDARIES. NONETHELESS...HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE MTNS WITH A
LATER INCREASE IN POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS ROUNDS OF STORMS FORM
ACRS THE AREA.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT SOME WEAK DPVA MAY TRAIL IT...MOVING
SEWD ACRS THE CWFA THIS EVENING. A MINOR LLVL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN TO
MOVE SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLIGHTLY S
AND E OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA. SOME LINGERING MUCAPE IS SHOWN
THOUGH IT DIMINISHES AND IS INHIBITED AND WELL ELEVATED ANYWAY. IT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT ANY REMAINING CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARIES IN
OR INVOF THE FA WILL DIMINISH EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE MTNS. LOWS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL.

FRIDAY...FLOW ACRS THE SRN CONUS GENERALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS WITH LOW PRS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE AREA...THOUGH ONLY
PROVIDING VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE. OVERALL...THE FA REMAINS UNDER
WEAKLY SHEARED BUT SEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. LAPSE
RATES ARE SHOWN TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY...WITH
LOWER CAPE VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING. VALUES HOWEVER REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO EXPECT A SMALL SEVERE THREAT...FROM DOWNBURST WIND AND
HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
TYPICALLY SUBTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND ARE UNLIKELY TO
HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AND
WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD...PLACING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH A DEEP NW FLOW
ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE THIS WILL THEORETICALLY RENDER
THE AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION...BASED UPON WIND PROFILES...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT
ANYTHING TOO ORGANIZED AND SELF-SUSTAINING WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM...AS ONE MAY NEED TO TRAVEL AS FAR NORTH AS THE CANADIAN
BORDER TO FIND ROBUST SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION...AND HALFWAY DECENT STEERING CURRENTS (MEAN
CLOUD BEARING WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KTS...ABOVE CLIMO POPS
(GENERALLY 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...20/30
PERCENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS) APPEAR WARRANTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BACK DOOR ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR...OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. OVERALL...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
IS TYPICAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FCST IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW
ACRS THE ERN CONUS. THE WESTERLIES/POLAR JET WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE CWFA. SO EXPECT PRIMARILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION EVERY DAY
THRU LATE NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECWMF DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE GFS EARLIER AND DEEPER WITH A LONGWAVE
TROF ACRS THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF KEEPS STRONGER
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFE/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE A
COMPROMISE AND PREFERRED BY WPC. THIS KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT/SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THRU THURSDAY. I BLENDED
THE WPC/CONS/BCCONSALL WITH OFFICIAL...WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SMALL
CHANGES. BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACRS THE MTNS EACH DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE MEDIUM
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NW BY MID AFTN...IF NOT
SOONER...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS FURTHER S ALONG THE VA/NC COAST.
THEY WILL PREVAIL NORTHERLY INTO FRIDAY. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY HANDLING UPSTREAM TSRA WELL AND SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES
IN TEMPO RANGE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. ANY TSRA SHOULD BE MODT
TO HEAVY AND WELL CAPABLE OF MVFR VSBY...AND GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING
THE END OF CONVECTION...A VFR CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SWD THRU THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS FROM AM FOG NOT
LIKELY...BUT IF PROLONGED RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTN SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTN...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM EAST TN
LATER BENEATH A WEAK SHORTWAVE. CHANCES ARE BEST OVER THE MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...SO TEMPO TSRA INCLUDED AS AT KCLT. ELSEWHERE
VCTS LOOKS SUFFICIENT. MTN VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AT DAYBREAK
PARTICULARLY IF TSRA AFFECT THOSE AREAS THIS AFTN. GUIDANCE ALSO
HITS KAND WITH FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME NORTHERLY THIS AFTN
AND CONTINUE TO PREVAIL NLY THRU 18Z FRI...IF THEY DO NOT GO CALM
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING TSRA AND
ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
FORM OVER AREAS OF RECENT RAINFALL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-201015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
606 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
532 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             2 WNW MOORE             34.84N 82.02W
06/19/2014  E0.75 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL FROM 2 PUBLIC REPORTS AND STILL COMING
            DOWN. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             3 S OLD FORT            35.59N 82.18W
06/19/2014  E1.00 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA RELAYED REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON BAT CAVE RD.

&&

JLANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

SCZ007-008-013-192215-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
539 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UNION...EAST CENTRAL
SPARTANBURG AND SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 539 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PACOLET...OR 8 MILES EAST OF SPARTANBURG...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  JONESVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3487 8191 3504 8182 3493 8147 3492 8147
      3489 8148 3485 8146 3471 8154

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW MARION             35.63N 82.07W
06/19/2014                   MCDOWELL           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA RELAYED COUNTY COMMS REPORT OF TREES BLOWN DOWN ON
            WALL POOL RD.

&&

JLANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
552 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REIDVILLE               34.86N 82.11W
06/19/2014                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE
            REIDVILLE/MOORE AREA. PUBLIC REPORTS AT LEAST 7 TREES
            DOWN IN THIS AREA.

&&

JLANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             BEREA                   34.88N 82.47W
06/19/2014  E1.00 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM RADIO OPERATOR RELAYED QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORT FROM
            BEREA HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

JLANE