Flood in Florida, October 23, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE COVERING THE FLORIDA
KEYS...HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THE WATERS IN AND AROUND DRY TORTUGAS AND THE OUTER
WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING BETWEEN 75 AND 80 DEGREES. SURFACE
WISE...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...AN EARLIER ASCAT AND C-MAN OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A COUPLE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THESE
IMPULSES ALOFT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...NO
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. BUT UNTIL THEN...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...WILL DROP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING IN
THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
DEEPENING AND FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW...MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH ISOLATED CLIMO 20 PERCENT POPS AND
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLACKENING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 24/12Z AT BOTH
THE KEYS WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. THE WET PATTERN COMBINED WITH
THE EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 12K FEET CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
INTERMITTENT LOW LEVEL SHOWERS CROSSING THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTINESS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY TO NEAR 20
KNOTS OFF THE DECK...ABOVE 1K FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2005...A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT
DEVELOPED IN THE OUTERMOST RAINBAND OF HURRICANE WILMA AND PASSED
JUST TO THE WEST OF KEY WEST. THIS WATERSPOUT WAS EXTREMELY LARGE
AND TRACKED FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST TO THE GULF WATERS WEST
OF MARCO ISLAND IN COLLIER COUNTY...NEARLY 140 MILES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  82  82  75 / 70 70 30 -
MARATHON  74  82  82  74 / 70 70 30 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
948 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE
ISLANDS NORTHWARD

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-241000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
948 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...INCLUDING THOSE SURROUNDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

SEVERAL EPISODES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES...WITH PONDING OF WATER AND MINOR STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PEAK OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.