Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, June 25 to 28, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
352 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The cluster of storms over the northern Gulf this morning created a
rather large shield of middle and high level clouds which has
severely limited instability west of the Apalachicola and
Chattahoochee rivers, especially near the Gulf coast. This
essentially precluded any seabreeze circulation there. To the east,
the remaining convection, and eventually just the outflow boundary
moved through the coastal Big Bend region disturbing any seabreeze
development here as well. So far, the only convection we've seen has
been along this outflow as it moved into a more unstable airmass
inland in the southeast Big Bend. Convection has begun to develop
just west of our Alabama counties and under the fast westerly flow
should move into the Tri-State region through the remainder of the
afternoon. Now that the cloud shield has broken in this region, I
see no reason why convection would have trouble surviving through
its eastward trek. Late tonight and nearer to dawn a mid-level
disturbance from the large area of convection in the western Gulf
should reach our western Gulf waters and adjacent coast, bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms similar to this morning.

&&

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

As has been mentioned over the past several days, the strengthening
upper level ridge to the south will gradually take a foothold over
the CWA and result in gradually decreasing PoPs and gradually
increasing high temperatures across the region during the next
couple of days. During the day, the highest Pops will be over the FL
Big Bend and Panhandle with the sea breeze, but shift slightly
northward into GA and AL during the evening hours. High temps should
range from the lower to middle 90s before the more serious heat
comes in over the weekend.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Until some possible upper level trofing moves in from the SE by very
late in the period (next Wed. or Thu.), a very prolonged stretch of
upper level ridging should be in command of the SE U.S. With the aid
of weak surface high pressure as well, this pattern should result in
an extended period of Hot and Humid weather for the region, with
just isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will likely range from the lower
90s along the coast to the mid to upper 90s well inland.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms for the
remainder of the afternoon. Only patchy light fog is expected for
most terminals tonight, though VLD has the potential to see some
more restrictive conditions near morning.

&&

.Marine...

A fairly typical and benign summertime pattern will result in light
winds and low seas outside of any stronger showers and thunderstorms
throughout the next several days. The afternoon and evening sea
breeze will create some onshore enhancements near the coast which
will last for a few hours.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

No significant widespread precipitation is expected across the
hydrological service area during the next several days. Therefore,
all area rivers and streams are expected to remain at low flows for
the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  94  71  96  71 /  60  50  20  40  30
Panama City   77  89  76  90  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
Dothan        71  92  72  93  72 /  20  40  30  30  30
Albany        70  93  71  94  72 /  20  30  30  30  30
Valdosta      72  95  71  96  71 /  60  40  20  30  30
Cross City    72  94  72  94  72 /  50  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  76  89  76  90  77 /  30  20  20  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD