High Surf in Florida, December 9 to 10, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
640 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014

.AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR CIGS AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND
THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
NW AT 6-10KT AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC
WHILE CLOSING OFF THEN REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. FLOW AROUND THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE A NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALL WEEK LONG. THE RESULT WILL BE
A COOL WEEK WITH TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY-TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW
SPINNING OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST. THIS WILL PULL AWAY WITH
THE TRAILING PUSH OF COOLER AIR FOLLOWING. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COOL AIR PUSH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO TODAY. OTHERWISE,
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
TUMBLING.

WE HAVE A FEW COLD NIGHTS AHEAD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT FORECAST
TO BE WED NIGHT WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY DRY AIR FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWATS FALLING TO JUST BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WED-WED NIGHT, ALONG WITH RELAXING WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY,
HAVE SIDED WITH THE COLDER SOLUTIONS OF GFS AND ECMWF MOS.
HOWEVER, MODELS DO SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BLOWING IN TOMORROW
NIGHT SO DID NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS SOME OF THE OUTPUT, BUT CLOSE.

TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER BUT IT WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS WITH TEMPS NOT RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL A WEEK
FROM NOW. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ALL WEEK LONG.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACHES AS SURF
COULD REACH AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH WED MORNING. SURF WILL LESSEN
DOWN THE COAST BUT RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE ENTIRE
LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SCRIPPS BUOY OFF FT. PIERCE IS REGISTERING A SWELL OF 7
FEET AT 14-15 SEC PERIOD. SATELLITE DERIVED WAVEHEIGHTS SHOW 10-16
FT SEAS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, PEAKING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WED EVENING.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN THE
FORECAST FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. KPBI HAS ALREADY BECOME
BKN006 BUT FOR NOW KEPT ALL OTHER TERMINALS AT BKN010-015 BUT MAY
HAVE TO AMEND IF THE LOWER CIGS PAN OUT. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS AT MVFR BEFORE CLEARING OUT AT MID DAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE W-NW AT 8-10KT BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF GUSTS
APPROACHING 20KT AT A FEW LOCATIONS. /KOB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  48  65  43 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  53  67  48 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  52  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           69  49  65  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...60/BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
405 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
092115-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
405 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: BUILDING SURF WILL TRANSLATE TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WAVES: SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF STREAM WATERS.

TEMPERATURES: MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION WILL BE EXPECTED DUE TO HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.