Heavy Rain in Florida, August 30, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS A
LONE SHOWER NEAR O'BRIEN ROSE UP THEN FIZZLED QUICKLY. A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE GA COASTAL WATERS HAS SPARKED SCATTERED T'STORMS
WHICH ARE STRADDLING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SE GA WATERS. IT'S
NOT SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION SHOWS SIGNS OF DEVLOPING ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IN GLYNN COUNTY. KJAX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AT
900 MB. WAITING ON TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST SEA
BREEZES ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND UNDER VERY LIGHT FLOW.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIP
WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM HEATING THIS AFTN AND THEN A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION AROUND SUNSET AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. WILL LOWER POPS 10-20% FOR
REST OF AFTN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO IN THE
70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT MAY
DRIFT INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS THE FINAL FORECAST
DISCUSSION OF MY NWS CAREER. BEST WISHES TO ALL.

.EXTENDED /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE REGION. TUESDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA BUT WILL STALL OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER GEORGIA THROUGH MID- WEEK. FRIDAY GET INTERESTING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS MOVES FIRST
WEST THEN NORTHWEST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION
THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THEN APPROACH CLIMO LATER IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE THE TSTORM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN EXPECT SOME WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE AROUND
22Z IN THE VICINITY OF CRG AND VQQ. AS SEABREEZES MERGE LATER IN THE
AFTN/EVENING EXPECT STRONGER TSRA TO IMPACT GNV WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR/LIFR VIS. ADDITIONALLY MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AT GNV IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING JUST NORTH OF
THE WATERS. A NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDS SOUTH
10-15 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL OFTEN BE LESS THAN
10 KTS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  72  95 /  30  40  30  30
SSI  77  89  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  30  30  20  30
SGJ  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  20  20
GNV  72  92  72  93 /  50  50  40  40
OCF  73  93  73  93 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/SANDRIK/WALSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
108 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-310900-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
108 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE AREA BEACHES DUE TO
A LINGERING SWELL AND AN AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG AND PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AT
THE AREA BEACHES DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/MKT