Flash Flood and Hail in Colorado, June 24, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
318 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SUPPRESSED MOST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT...AND IF THE CAP
ERODES WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL 10 PM. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH.

A SYNOPTIC SETUP SIMILAR TO TODAY WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE AT LOW LEVELS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INLAND FROM
CALIFORNIA. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A
BIT DRIER FLOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE WILL
STILL BE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH A
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHER
POPS FURTHER EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE TROF SWINGS ACROSS
COLORADO ON FRIDAY WITH EVEN DRIER AIR MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT UPWARD ASCENT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. OVERALL...A DRIER PERIOD WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ON THE PLAINS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGE
ALOFT BEGINS TO AMPLIFY A BIT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A RETURN
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY AID IN RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS
OF THIS EVENING. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO 5000-6000 FT AGL AND VSBYS
MAY DROP BELOW 5SM IF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIES THE
SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER THAT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1106 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

COZ030>051-251715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1106 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. WIND PROFILES ALOFT ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL HELP SUPPRESS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER AREAS
THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY...FLASH FLOODING
COULD BECOME A PROBLEM. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS FORM LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING AND WARMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE DRIEST AND WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.