Wildfire in California, September 14 to 22, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
358 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPS ARE TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
24 HOURS AGO THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH IS A TELLTALE
SIGN THAT TODAY WILL TURN INTO ANOTHER SIZZLING HOT DAY IN
THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. THE
RIDGE AXIS WHICH HAD BEEN SITUATED ALONG THE COAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO HAS SINCE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...A PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER CA. ALTHOUGH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW AT
TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS MOISTEN UP THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER A BIT TODAY OVER
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. THE INCREASED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS
(ABOVE 8C) COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM RIGHT ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENING SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHC POPS TO THIS AREA FOR THESE PERIODS. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
PRETTY SHALLOW...SO ANY TSTM THAT POPS UP WILL MOST LIKELY BE
DRY AND MORE OF A LIGHTNING THREAT ALONG THE CREST LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...CIRRUS AND SOME ALTOCU WILL BE UPON US BUT IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT IT WILL BE OPAQUE ENOUGH TO SLOW OUR WARMUP THIS
AFTERNOON.

BEYOND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE DWINDLES AS TO WHETHER A MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OCCURS. A
LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY AN EPAC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH DURING MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS
THE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE CA COAST WEDNESDAY THEN INLAND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DEEPER INTO THE WESTERLIES
WHICH WOULD THERORETICALLY SHEAR AWAY ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
TRIES TO COME THIS FAR NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECM IS
SLOWING DOWN THE EPAC TROUGH WHICH WILL MEAN WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
MORE SOUTHERLY AND THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR THE NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENCAL. UNTIL THE MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WE WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD WHICH CONCURS WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.
SKY COVER WAS INCREASED OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF MOISTURE
DOES COME THIS FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY...IT WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW
SO WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN BORDERS
WED AFTN/EVE. THURSDAY WOULD SEEM MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AS THE APPROACH OR INLAND
PASSAGE OF THE EPAC TROUGH GENERATES SOME LIFT AND INSTABILITY.

THE GFS MOVES THE EPAC TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY AND
BUILDS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER CA NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECM
HANGS THE TROUGH ALONG THE CA COAST DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
WE HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD IN FAVOR
OF THE GFS SOLN WHICH AGREES PRETTY WELL WITH THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
FORECAST OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY TREND
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE
CLIMO AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 14 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS AND MADERA COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-14      106:2012     70:1910     72:1937     47:1903
KFAT 09-15      104:1983     74:1982     72:1938     45:1970
KFAT 09-16      105:1937     70:1908     73:1934     49:1955

KBFL 09-14      105:1989     74:2009     79:1971     45:1915
KBFL 09-15      106:1979     75:1959     77:1979     40:1915
KBFL 09-16      109:1929     74:1959     77:1971     42:1915
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
510 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CAZ095-098-099-150600-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
510 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT.

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

* TIMING:THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: RIDGECREST...ROSAMOND...TEHACHAPI...CALIFORNIA
  CITY...GOLDEN HILLS...WELDON...RANDSBURG...BODFISH...SOUTH LAKE
  CDP...EDWARDS AFB...CHINA LAKE ACRES...INYOKERN...STALLION
  SPRINGS...SQUIRREL MOUNTAIN VALLEY...ONYX...LAKE
  ISABELLA...MOJAVE...WATER CANYON... RIVERKERN AND JAWBONE
  CANYON.

* IMPACTS:LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
  GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
  DEVELOP.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ096-097-150600-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
510 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

* TIMING: SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
  SIERRA CREST.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: THE SIERRA BACK COUNTRY.

* IMPACTS: LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
  GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
  DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

* TIMING: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: YOSEMITE VALLEY...VOLCANIC KNOB...CHARLOTTE
  LAKE...DEVILS POSTPILE...JOHNSONDALE...DANA MEADOWS...WET
  MEADOWS...SNOW FLAT... GRAVEYARD MEADOW...BEAR PEAK...QUAKING
  ASPEN...MOUNT TOM...TENAYA LAKE...FLORENCE LAKE...HETCH
  HETCHY...DINKEY CREEK...BISHOP PASS... PEPPERMINT...CAMP NELSON
  AND LAKE WISHON.

* IMPACTS: LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
  GUSTY...ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
  DEVELOP

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.