Drought in California, September 1 to 30, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEK WHILE A DRY...WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY WAS OVER UTAH...AND THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE WAS
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

A LOW-LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE FIRST TROUGH MOVED
OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS FUNNELED THROUGH WALKER PASS...CREATING A MOUNTAIN WAVE
OVER THE INDIAN WELLS CANYON THAT REACHED 72 MPH...AND THROUGH
WALKER PASS GENERATING GUSTS TO 59 MPH AT MOJAVE AND 56 MPH AT CACHE
CREEK. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST OF THE REGION.

THE MARINE LAYER ROSE TO A DEPTH OF 1500 FEET AT FORT ORD BY 14Z
/0700 PDT/ THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE LOWERED TO AROUND 1100 FEET
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THE RELATIVE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MARINE LAYER MEANT THAT
THERE WAS LITTLE SPILLAGE THROUGH THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE INTO
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE WAS
NOT AS MUCH COOLING AS WAS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME SATURDAY. AT 20Z
/1300 PDT/...TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
DOWN 2 DEGREES FROM 20Z SATURDAY AT BAKERSFIELD AND DOWN 3 DEGREES
AT FRESNO.

THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL KEEP THE
RIDGE IN CHECK...AND TEMPERATURES LABOR DAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO OR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. A STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DROP OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A FEW DEGREES WARMING FOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A QUASI-REX BLOCK DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...HOLDING THE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY. THERE LIKELY WILL BE ANOTHER MODEST WARMING TREND AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DUE TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     77:1946     78:1998     50:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD