Drought in California, February 1 to 28, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
132 PM PST FRI JAN 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING TOMORROW. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT
ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LAST NIGHTS TROUGH IS NOW WELL EAST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AS THE JET OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENS. WIND OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERT IS FLIRTING WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. WINDS
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS GRADIENTS RELAX. OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY, THIS AFTERNOON'S BREEZY AND WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE
AND GIVEN THE SURFACE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, LOCAL DENSE FOG IS A
GOOD BET. ALL HINGES ON THE MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
AN ADVISORY JUST NOW, RATHER HANDLE THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA THE POTENTIAL.

THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A "COASTAL HUGGER" TYPE. FORECAST MODELS AND NOW
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE ARE WELL IN AGREEMENT THIS
FEATURE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG THEN CENTRAL COAST AND EXIT SAN
DIEGO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE TRICK IN FORECASTING THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR IS HOW FAR INLAND THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT EXTENDS AND WHETHER THE ACCOMPANYING
DEFORMATION BAND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE SIERRA. I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH STAYED THE COARSE ON THE SIERRA SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. I HAVE, BASED ON SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT
TRACK, INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WESTERN FRESNO, KINGS AND
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE TEHACHAPI AND SAN EMIGDIO
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. SOME DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AS WELL AS
MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

FOR NEXT WEEK FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A SHIFT IN THE NORTH
AMERICAN PATTERN BEGINS AS THE BIG MID PACIFIC BLOCKING RIDGE
MIGRATES TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN AIR THAT HAD
PREVIOUSLY BEEN POURING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES TO NOW
INITIALLY INVADE THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND BY THUS DAY AND
FRIDAY PUSH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WELL SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION.
AS OF NOW MODELS ARE PROJECTING A MAINLY DRY AND COLDER SCENARIO.
I HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING BELOW NORMAL...CAN YOU BELIEVE IT?

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AREAS IFR IN FOG AFTER 08Z...IMPROVING TO
VFR AFTER 18Z. SIERRA AND TEHACHAPI MTNS...AREAS MTN OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH 18Z...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-31       75:1984     39:1969     55:1963     26:1949
KFAT 02-01       73:1991     43:1939     54:1905     25:1950
KFAT 02-02       74:1928     44:1903     57:1907     26:1950

KBFL 01-31       82:1984     45:1969     57:1963     23:1902
KBFL 02-01       76:1928     45:1965     55:1963     24:1902
KBFL 02-02       80:1928     44:1971     61:1958     23:1893
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD