Tornado and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, October 12 to 13, 2014

Name: Tornado and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, October 12 to 13, 2014
Start: 2014-10-12T21:00
End: 2014-10-13T12:22
Location: Arkansas

October 12 to 13, 2014 · NWS MEG · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

A warm front surged northward across the Mid-South during the evening of October 12th, 2014. Some storms developed along the front.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 1
Property damage: $270,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.

A warm front surged northward across the Mid-South during the evening of October 12th, 2014. Some storms developed along the front. One of which, became severe, producing damaging winds. Behind the front, the atmosphere became warm and unstable. Then, a cold front pushed into the Mid-South during the afternoon hours of October 13th, 2014. As a result, numerous showers and thunderstorms developed along and ahead of the front. Some storms became severe producing damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado. One injury occurred when a wall collapsed at a convenience store.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 12, 8:27 PM CST, 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 12, 8:27 PM CST, 33 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
927 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

.UPDATE...

AS OF 9PM...
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BACK THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE IN THE FA BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE RATHER MILD THIS
EVENING WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO A STILL SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE NEAR ARKLATEX MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TIME TO
RECOVER BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT OR THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TOMORROW.

NEW ZONES AND GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

AC3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A WARM FRONT
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE
ALREADY SURGING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE THUS FAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SHOWERS AND AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND A DEVELOPING 850
MB LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO
AROUND 6.5 KM...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
35-40 KTS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY DECENT
AGREEMENT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY MONDAY NIGHT. IMPRESSIVE 80-120 DM 500
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...MODERATELY STEEP TO STEEP 700-500 MB
LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 TO 7 C/KM...FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY A 110 KT 250 MB UPPER LEVEL
JET...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 45 TO 60 KTS AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SPREAD ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SOME INITIAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE AND 0-1
KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING 250-300 M2/S2 MAY
SUPPORT SOME SEMI- DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL BOWING
SEGMENTS GRADUALLY CONGEALING INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM /QLCS/ BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREATS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES MAY ALSO RESULT IN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. EVENING/MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND TONIGHT/S 00Z MODEL RUN
AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND THREATS AS THIS
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DRAWS CLOSER. STAY TUNED...

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INDICATES
A GOOD CHANCE OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS IN THIS
AREA FROM 10 AM CDT TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS TUESDAY.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING LOW END RAIN CHANCES BUT FORECAST
OVERALL REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAINLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING... MAINLY SOUTH OF A
MEM/MKL LINE. KEPT THUNDER MENTION LIMITED DURING THE OVERNIGHT...
GIVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD IT IN A FUTURE
UPDATE.

DISCRETE TSRA CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z MONDAY...BECOMING
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD ENTER THE MEM TRACON 21Z TO 22Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO TSRA
GUST TO 35KTS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR 50 TO 60KTS WITH A
FEW OF THE STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 12, 3:10 PM CST, 5 hours 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
410 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-131100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
410 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WINDS IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT REACHES SEVERE LIMITS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT BECOMES SEVERE. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
MID SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THOUGH A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL IS A SECONDARY THREAT.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON MONDAY FROM 10 AM CDT TO 7 AM CDT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN
SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 44 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:59 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Crittenden

When: October 12, 9:00 PM CST to 9:10 PM CST
Where: Crittenden County, 1.59 mi SW of Vincent to 1.88 mi SW of James Mill
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 35.205, -90.321

Straight line winds produced damage to four homes near Crawfordsville. One roof was damaged and several windows were blown out. A fence was blown down and a trampoline was blown up in a tree. A trailer full of equipment was also blown over. In addition, a 100 year old house had the front pillars knocked down. Numerous tree limbs were blown down.

Thunderstorm Wind, St. Francis

When: October 13, 11:04 AM CST to 11:10 AM CST
Where: St. Francis County, Forrest City to 1.89 mi SW of Forrest City
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $50,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 35.020, -90.770

Straight line winds blew a roof off a classroom building onto a nearby roof.

Tornado, Clay

When: October 13, 11:48 AM CST to 11:49 AM CST
Where: Clay County, 1.19 mi WNW of Mc Dougal to 1.38 mi NNW of Mc Dougal
Rating: EF0
Path length: 0.87 mi
Path width: 100 yd
Property damage: $70,000
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 36.439, -90.398

A tornado briefly touched down just north of Highway 62 near McDougal. Four homes sustained damage. The most significant damage was to a double wide mobile home which had half of the roof torn off. Several trees were knocked down with a few falling onto homes.

Thunderstorm Wind, Mississippi

When: October 13, 12:20 PM CST to 12:22 PM CST
Where: Mississippi County, 1.15 mi NW of Osceola Harwell Arpt to 0.49 mi NNE of Osceola
Measured: 68 kt (78 mph) estimated gust
Injuries: 1 direct, 0 indirect
Property damage: $150,000
Reported by: NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates: 35.694, -89.992

Straight line winds produced minor damage to homes in a residential neighborhood and to several businesses mainly from shingle damage or from falling trees. The most significant damage was to a convenience store which had the roof shifted off which then caused a load bearing wall to collapse. One minor injury occurred as a result.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
Tornado: A violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground and extending from a thunderstorm, filed with its path, width and Fujita or Enhanced Fujita rating from the damage survey.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arkansas in 2014 Every state in 2014 This day in weather history The tornado archive for Arkansas, 2014 Warnings in Arkansas, October 2014

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 544361, 544344, 544345, 544346.