Wildfire in Arkansas, November 18 to 19, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1150 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.AVIATION...18/18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL. INCRSG S/SWLY WINDS WL BE NOTED ACRS THE
AREA THIS AFTN...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 6 TO 12 KTS COMMON. LOW
LVL WIND SHEAR WL DVLP ACRS THE REGION LATER TNGT AND PERSIST THRU
MUCH OF WED MRNG. A WEAK FNTL BNDRY WL APCH NRN AR TOWARD THE END
OF THE FCST PD... WITH SFC WINDS BCMG W/SWLY WED MRNG. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD...BUT A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TODAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. ON WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...STALLING OUT OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.

BY LATE THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...
WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND THE FRONT
BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
SEVERAL MORE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN
THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A POTENT AND INTENSIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NW FROM
CENTRAL TX TOWARDS AR AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEG TILTED AS IT MOVES OVER AR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. EXPECTING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR WX POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE DOES REMAIN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT WITH THE
TROUGH BECOMING NEG TILTED AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION...WILL
NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO SEE HOW
THE SVR WX POTENTIAL WILL PAN OUT THIS WEEKEND.

THIS STRENGTHENING CYCLONE WILL LIFT NE OF THE STATE ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE STATE ON
THE BACK SIDE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND SFC LOW.
THE WINTER WX POTENTIAL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS LOW AT
THIS TIME WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
AN EXCEPTION BEING EARLY MON MORNING WHEN THE MAIN SURGE OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES.

TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR SAT AND SUN...BUT DROP
BACK BELOW NORMAL TO END THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1215 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME.

A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY. GIVEN HOW STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BE AS
IT MOVES OVER ARKANSAS...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING
TIMING AND HOW STRONG ANY STORMS MAY BE.

AS A RESULT...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS IN
THE COMING DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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