Ice Storm and Winter Weather in Arkansas, February 4, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1151 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

.AVIATION...

MAINLY MVFR AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. IN SE AR...KPBF AND
KLLQ WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MORE HIGH AND
MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO AR...AND GRADUALLY
SEE PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY FREEZING...OVER WESTERN
AREAS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE
STATE ON TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TOWARD TUESDAY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE NE TO E AT 5 TO
15 MPH OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND DUE TO BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SIGNIFICANT FREEZING LIGHT RAIN...SLEET...SNOW AND
RAIN WILL COVER THE STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014/

UPDATE...

PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL HAVING A LOOK AT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE MADE SOME NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE IS TO BRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE STATE TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS DO
NOT REALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED COLD LAYER WILL BE IN
PLACE. IN FACT...MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE SFC LOW CROSSES THE MISS
RIVER LATE TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS BACK AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
WITH TIME THUS REINFORCING THE COLD DOME AND PROLONGING WINTRY
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE NORTH...AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPES AND DURATION GOES...VERY
LITTLE WAS CHANGED. THE ONLY CONSIDERATION THERE IS THAT A
CONVERSION TO A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.
WILL AT LEAST HOLD OFF ON THAT DECISION UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT MAY PUNT THIS TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS THEY WILL
HAVE THE 00Z GUIDANCE TO LOOK AT.

FURTHER SOUTH...IT WAS WELL AGREED UPON THAT A WINTRY MIX WOULD
OCCUR AS PRECIPITATION MOVED IN TUE MORNING. THE IMPACT WAS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. HOWEVER...NEW MODEL DATA
INDICATES THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS QUICK TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AND
MAY LAST CONSIDERABLY LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ADDITIONALLY
THIS WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AREAS
FROM NEAR WALDRON UP TO RUSSELLVILLE AND OVER TO HEBER SPRINGS AND
BATESVILLE MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN AT ALL TOMORROW.

LASTLY...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT...FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK BUT SOUTH OF
I-40...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN BY MID/LATE MORNING.
AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ADVISORY LIKE ARKADELPHIA AND
PINE BLUFF MAY SEE A QUICK GLAZE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...BUT
WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY LUNCH THAT WILL LAST THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FOR LITTLE ROCK AND AREAS RELATIVELY CLOSE
BY...SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY BEFORE 9-10AM. BUT FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL INCREASINGLY MIX IN AND ANY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN OVER SE AR AND EFFECT
MAINLY KLLQ. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MORE HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO AR...AND GRADUALLY SEE PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY FREEZING...OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE STATE ON TUESDAY.
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD TUESDAY
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE NE TO E AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

YET ANOTHER WINTER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TUESDAY MORNING.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS NOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
700-900 MB LAYER WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
CONDENSATION DEFICITS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY EVENING TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON OVERALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH. NORTHWEST SECTIONS SHOULD SEE A WINTER
MIX...WITH NORTHEAST SECTIONS EXPERIENCING FREEZING RAIN.  A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING.

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED...LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOWFALL. FORECAST PARCEL TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHILE ANOTHER SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH. ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER ON THE TIMING OF THE
TROF VERSUS THE GFS...ECMWF BRINGS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS FAVORING MIDDAY SUNDAY. WILL LEAN A BIT MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF.

PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST AT THIS RANGE...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF THE COLD LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IT APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
STATE. THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET THAT OCCURS IN
THOSE AREAS AS THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW. SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN AND THE PRECIP SHOULD END

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     21  32  23  33 /  10 100  40  10
CAMDEN AR         30  39  29  43 /  50 100  30  10
HARRISON AR       24  31  18  26 /  20 100  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    29  37  27  39 /  50 100  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  26  36  28  39 /  50 100  30  10
MONTICELLO AR     29  41  29  42 /  40 100  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      30  37  25  35 /  50 100  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  24  31  20  29 /  10 100  40  10
NEWPORT AR        21  32  24  35 /  10 100  50  10
PINE BLUFF AR     28  38  28  41 /  50 100  40  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  34  25  34 /  50 100  20  10
SEARCY AR         21  33  25  36 /  30 100  40  10
STUTTGART AR      26  36  28  39 /  40 100  40  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
615 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT...AND INCREASE
CLOUDS...AS WELL AS BRING SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH OR BECOMING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE BY SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT...LITTLE TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN. ANY IMPACTS AT THIS TIME WOULD
BE LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION BEGIN IN
WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE MORNING AND QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EVENING...FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE NORTH...A
MIXTURE CENTRAL...AND RAIN IN THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN...AND THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FREEZING RAIN...THEN CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW
MIX. IN THE NORTH...AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS SEEING A BIT MORE...AND ONE TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS ARKANSAS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
WITH THIS LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51/59