Flash Flood and Hail in Arizona, July 8, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DRIER MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA LEADING TO ISOLATED STORMS THERE. ELSEWHERE NUMEROUS STORMS
TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS YAVAPAI
COUNTY WITH REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH AND MEASURED RAINFALL
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DID SLOW CONVECTION
ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY...BUT THIS HAS PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD AND
STRONG STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING HERE...WITH
DEVELOPED STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

THE GFS MODELS SHOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY AND MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAYS FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
IS SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WAS MADE ISOLATED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM ASH FORK TO
KAYENTA. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...NMRS SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 04Z. EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD MVFR
VSBY/CIGS CONTINUING UNTIL 09Z. NUMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
18Z...MOST NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY...AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...MOST NOTABLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA.

.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 AM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

AZZ004>018-037>040-090715-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
817 AM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL FORCE MOST
STORMS TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY.

THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS YAVAPAI...
COCONINO...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.