Arizona, 2014Drought in Arizona, July 1 to 31, 2014
July 1 to 31, 2014 · NWS TWC · 8 events in 8 counties and zones
Extreme drought (D3) conditions continued across part of southeast Arizona during July. Just a small portion of Graham and Greenlee counties was removed from the extreme drought area because of above average monsoonal rainfall.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 8
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Extreme drought (D3) conditions continued across part of southeast Arizona during July. Just a small portion of Graham and Greenlee counties was removed from the extreme drought area because of above average monsoonal rainfall.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 8:50 PM MST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 8:50 PM MST, 3 hours 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 PM MST MON JUN 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOTTER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
BRING MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GREATLY INCREASING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT AND DUSTY DAY. SIGNS OF PROGRESS CONTINUE
AS THE RIDGE AXIS PHASES OVERHEAD. LOOKING SOUTH...DEEPER AND MORE
SUSTAINABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW POSITIONED IN CENTRAL
SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA SOLIDLY ANCHORED ABOVE 1.2 INCHES. GOOD TRENDS
WITH HIGHER VALUES PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY SURFACE STREAMLINES
CONTINUE. VERY NICE COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHIHUAHUA WITH A
STRONG AND STILL ACTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SONORA.
ELSEWHERE...MARGINAL MOISTURE INCREASE ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH...INCLUDING NEW MEXICO AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH
WEAKENING FLOW THIS WILL PROBABLY ALLOW THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TO RAMP UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
NIGHT TIME SURGE POTENTIAL INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH OUTFLOW ACTIVITY AND THERMALLY INDUCED PRESSURE
DIFFERENTIALS. WEDNESDAY WILL RAMP UP FURTHER FROM TOMORROW BUT WILL
PROBABLY STILL EMPHASIZE TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND EASTERN LOCATIONS.
STRONG SIGNALS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND
INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY MAKE FOR AN EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD AND BUSY THUNDERSTORM DAY. CURRENT FORECAST AGGRESSIVE
WITH 30-50 PERCENT VALLEY COVERAGE AND 50-75 PERCENT MOUNTAIN
COVERAGE BUT MAY ULTIMATELY STILL BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE FOR
POTENTIAL PEAK PERIODS. WEEKEND STARTING TO SHAPE UP TO BE A LITTLE
WORKED OVER AND NOT AS BUSY OR ORGANIZED AS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/04Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS GREENLEE/
GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF KTUS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-15K FT AGL
EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SW-NW 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE IN THE
SAFFORD VALLEY. GUSTS FROM TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH ABOUT
40 KTS IN AREAS E OF KTUS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE...AND COCHISE COUNTIES EAST
OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A STRONG CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS/THINKING VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND AMPLIFYING TO OUR
WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD...WITH THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE... BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE
THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
GETTING CLOSER TO ARIZONA...WITH VALUES OVER 1 INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SONORA...AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. EXPECT THESE AREAS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS ARIZONA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY ONCE THE HIGH MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
IMPORTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MAY EVEN SEE THESE VALUES AS
SOON AS WEDNESDAY IF LARGE SCALE CONVECTION SOUTH OR EAST OF THE
STATE INITIATES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS AREA SPREADS FURTHER WEST WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF TUCSON...AND CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. MONSOONAL PATTERN IN FULL SWING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH
THE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. HAVE CONTINUED THE
UPWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
30 POPS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD
(BASICALLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA)...AND 60+
POPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME...WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE MODELS
DO NOT REALLY INDICATE ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WHICH COULD
HELP FIRE OFF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL EXPECT THE DAILY CYCLE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUST WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER
Drought, South Central Pinal County
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- South Central Pinal County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across southern and eastern Pinal, northern and western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Greenlee and Cochise counties through July. A small portion of Graham and Greenlee counties was reduced to the severe (D2) category due to above average rainfall. The remainder of the extreme drought area received either near normal July rainfall or as little as 50 percent of normal. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir continued to fall, bottoming out at close to 1 percent of capacity by the end of the month. Soil moisture remained at less than 20 percent of normal. Ranchers continued to be affected by the depletion of rangeland forage vegetation.
Drought, Southeast Pinal County
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across southern and eastern Pinal, northern and western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Greenlee and Cochise counties through July. A small portion of Graham and Greenlee counties was reduced to the severe (D2) category due to above average rainfall. The remainder of the extreme drought area received either near normal July rainfall or as little as 50 percent of normal. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir continued to fall, bottoming out at close to 1 percent of capacity by the end of the month. Soil moisture remained at less than 20 percent of normal. Ranchers continued to be affected by the depletion of rangeland forage vegetation.
Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across southern and eastern Pinal, northern and western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Greenlee and Cochise counties through July. A small portion of Graham and Greenlee counties was reduced to the severe (D2) category due to above average rainfall. The remainder of the extreme drought area received either near normal July rainfall or as little as 50 percent of normal. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir continued to fall, bottoming out at close to 1 percent of capacity by the end of the month. Soil moisture remained at less than 20 percent of normal. Ranchers continued to be affected by the depletion of rangeland forage vegetation.
Drought, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across southern and eastern Pinal, northern and western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Greenlee and Cochise counties through July. A small portion of Graham and Greenlee counties was reduced to the severe (D2) category due to above average rainfall. The remainder of the extreme drought area received either near normal July rainfall or as little as 50 percent of normal. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir continued to fall, bottoming out at close to 1 percent of capacity by the end of the month. Soil moisture remained at less than 20 percent of normal. Ranchers continued to be affected by the depletion of rangeland forage vegetation.
Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across southern and eastern Pinal, northern and western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Greenlee and Cochise counties through July. A small portion of Graham and Greenlee counties was reduced to the severe (D2) category due to above average rainfall. The remainder of the extreme drought area received either near normal July rainfall or as little as 50 percent of normal. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir continued to fall, bottoming out at close to 1 percent of capacity by the end of the month. Soil moisture remained at less than 20 percent of normal. Ranchers continued to be affected by the depletion of rangeland forage vegetation.
Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across southern and eastern Pinal, northern and western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Greenlee and Cochise counties through July. A small portion of Graham and Greenlee counties was reduced to the severe (D2) category due to above average rainfall. The remainder of the extreme drought area received either near normal July rainfall or as little as 50 percent of normal. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir continued to fall, bottoming out at close to 1 percent of capacity by the end of the month. Soil moisture remained at less than 20 percent of normal. Ranchers continued to be affected by the depletion of rangeland forage vegetation.
Drought, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across southern and eastern Pinal, northern and western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Greenlee and Cochise counties through July. A small portion of Graham and Greenlee counties was reduced to the severe (D2) category due to above average rainfall. The remainder of the extreme drought area received either near normal July rainfall or as little as 50 percent of normal. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir continued to fall, bottoming out at close to 1 percent of capacity by the end of the month. Soil moisture remained at less than 20 percent of normal. Ranchers continued to be affected by the depletion of rangeland forage vegetation.
Drought, Chiricahua Mountains
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Chiricahua Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across southern and eastern Pinal, northern and western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Greenlee and Cochise counties through July. A small portion of Graham and Greenlee counties was reduced to the severe (D2) category due to above average rainfall. The remainder of the extreme drought area received either near normal July rainfall or as little as 50 percent of normal. Levels at San Carlos Reservoir continued to fall, bottoming out at close to 1 percent of capacity by the end of the month. Soil moisture remained at less than 20 percent of normal. Ranchers continued to be affected by the depletion of rangeland forage vegetation.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Excessive Heat in Nevada, July 1, 20143 deaths · 1 event
- Tornadoes and Hail in Indiana, July 1, 20142 deaths · 1 injured · EF1 · 38 events
- Flash Flood and Lightning Strikes in Arkansas, July 1, 20141 death · $25,000 · 3 events
- Excessive Heat in Washington, July 1, 20141 death · 1 injured · 2 events
- Excessive Heat in Oregon, July 1, 20141 death · 1 injured · 1 event
- Flooding in Arkansas, July 1 to 17, 2014$13 million · 5 events
- Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 1, 2014$3.0 million · 74 kt wind · 2 events
- Wildfire in Nevada, July 1 to 10, 20142 injured · $175,000 · 2 events
- Drought in Texas, July 1 to 31, 2014$96,000 · 24 events
- Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 1, 2014$49,000 · 64 kt wind · 36 events
- Damaging Winds in Indiana, July 1, 2014$109,000 · 65 kt wind · 11 events
- Damaging Winds in New York, July 1, 2014$60,000 · 50 kt wind · 12 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 528886, 528891, 528892, 528893, 528894, 528895, 528896, 528897.