Blizzard in Alaska, October 7 to 9, 2014

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
314 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE YUKON INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA THIS
EVENING AND WITH THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON PHANFONE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE STATE WITH
A 532 DAM LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE MATSU VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REORIENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
BY THURSDAY MORNING AS 514 DAM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF TYPHOON PHANFONE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
A 520 DAM DEVELOPS OVER NORTON SOUND LATE THURSDAY. THE LOWS WILL
MERGE OVER BRISTOL BAY AS A 518 DAM LOW AND REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. CHINOOK
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR ZERO CELSIUS IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA ON
SUNDAY.

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN. A LOW IN NW CANADA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTHEAST OF
DEMARCATION POINT AS A 1008 MB LOW BY 4PM WED AND TO 300 NM NORTH
OF DEMARCATION POINT AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 4PM THU. A WEATHER FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE
WEST TO LIE ALONG THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST OF ALASKA WED
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA ON FRI.

ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE...HAVE CANCELLED THE BLIZZARD FOR
ZONE 218 BUT EXTENDED BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
AND ZONE 204 AS SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
AS GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE AS WELL. WEST OF KUPARUK WEST WINDS
ARE MUCH LIGHTER. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHEAST
ARCTIC AND NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING
OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST ZONES ARE CLOUD
FREE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER RUSSIA AND THE REMNANT TYPHOON LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING OVER
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FLAT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN A SLOW WARMING
TREND THAT WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS THIS
WEEKEND AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SO A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ISSUES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND...DIOMEDE...AND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
WITH SOME OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT SEAS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN KOTZEBUE AND NORTON SOUNDS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ218.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

JK OCT 14