Flood in Alaska, July 16, 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
543 AM AKDT WED JUL 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKA GULF SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR SOME PLACES WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS/SEAS ARE REPORTED.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE...THEN SPREAD
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW ENTERING THE GULF.
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL SOLUTIONS FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE
WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT THE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE FOR OCCASIONAL SUNNY BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE
HIGH OVER THE GULF AND THE THERMAL LOW IN THE YUKON...SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS
AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS OF 4 AM THE WATER LEVEL OF THE TAKU RIVER WAS
42.6 FEET...SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 43.0 FEET. IT
IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 43.0 FEET THIS MORNING
THEN CREST NEAR 43.5 FEET BY 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER LEVEL
IS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. THE WATER
LEVEL OF THE TAIYA RIVER NEAR SKAGWAY WAS 15.8 FEET...SLIGHTLY
BELOW BANKFULL AND THE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE NARROWING RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE PANHANDLE FOR
EARLY THURSDAY WILL ALLOW A A WEAK LOW FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE - DIXON
ENTRANCE REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. MEANWHILE A LOW OR SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRY
TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC TO SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THEN ACROSS THE GULF. MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES ITS
ISSUE IN THE RUN TO RUN SECTION... GENERALLY THE EC HAS HAD THE
BEST CONSISTENCY. OVERALL LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS AS IT
DID NOT HAVE A DEVELOPED LOW LIKE SOME OF THE OTHERS... WILL BE
WATCHING TO SEE IF THE 12Z SOLUTIONS COME BACK INTO LINE.

EXPECT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE THE
RECIPIENT OF SOME RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE NORTH PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRIER.

WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN THE LATER TIME FRAME TO PROMPT ANY
CHANGES...HAVE LEFT MOST OF THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST BE RATHER
THAN FIDDLE WITH IT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS POOR FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
WITH NO LARGE CLEAR SIGNALS AND BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

AHN/BEZENEK