Blizzard in Alaska, February 23, 2014

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
519 AM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT... A 557 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALASKA CONTINUES
PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH SLOPE
AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND A WEAK
TANANA VALLEY JET AT DELTA JUNCTION AND NENANA. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT OVER FAIRBANKS...HOWEVER SOLAR HEATING DURING THE
DAY WILL HELP TO ERODE THE INVERSION DURING THE DAY. A DEEP TROUGH
WITH NEGATIVE TILT CONTINUES OVER THE BERING SEA. SHORT WAVES
MOVING NORTHWEST ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO
BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST COAST.
LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE
AS TROUGH MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

SURFACE...A 968 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 57N AND 165E CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT AND CURVES SOUTH ALONG A LINE
FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND. THE ZERO ISOTHERM
AT 850 MB CONTINUES TO WAVER ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH A MIX OF
PRECIP NOTED IN THE YK DELTA AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWEST OUT OF BRISTOL
BAY. BLIZZARD WARNING EXTENDED FOR ZONE 213 WHERE WINDS AND SNOW
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HOISTED FOR ZONE 214
WHERE ONGOING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE
SNOW AT TIMES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS WEST AND MOVES
STALLED FRONT OFF SHORE THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
IN THE YK DELTA...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL INTO MONDAY MORNING ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND.

MODELS...SYNOPTIC MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND DISPLAY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS WITH BRINGING THE NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRISTOL BAY
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH LIMITS THE EXPOSURE OF THE
WEST COAST TO MIXED PRECIP TO JUST ZONE 213 AND ZONE 214. IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ANOTHER LOW MOVES NORTHWEST OVER COLD BAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THURSDAY ALONG THE WEST
FACE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM OVER
THE EASTERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC FEB 14