Hail in Wisconsin, May 28, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
837 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

.UPDATE...
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY WEATHER HAS STAYED SOUTH OF WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN RECENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
VERY WEAKLY DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT
MILWAUKEE...SOUTHWEST TO JANESVILLE. OR...THESE STORMS ARE LINING
UP ALONG SOME GRAVITY WAVE KICKED FROM THE STORMS TO THE SOUTH. EITHER
WAY...WE HAVE PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR THESE STORMS TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER. THEY HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO TO GET SEVERE...BUT
THEY COULD KICK OUT SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEFORE MOVING OUT BY
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN IS A GIVEN WITH THE VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL IN PLACE.  THE HRRR THEN HAS US
HIGH AND DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS WAITING UNTIL WE HEAT UP TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON TRENDS FOR TONIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR/LOW IFR LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE CURRENT STORMS HAS BROUGHT WHAT SHOULD BE TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT. HIGH DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
COLD LAKE MICHIGAN AIR TO COMBINE AND RESULT IN SOME DENSE FOG AT
KMKE AT TIMES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT IS A CONCERN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS RIGHT OVER OR
MAY SAG SOUTH OF KMSN...SO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD FILL BACK IN
THERE. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/

VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE WARM FRONT...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AND COULD BECOME
DENSE. BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WOULD BE THE NORTH HALF OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA...NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CREPT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY AND
ALREADY REACHED MADISON AND MILWAUKEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ARE RISING INTO THE MID 60S WILL HOLD TEMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
SURFACE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. SURFACE
BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE RISE...UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
WITH MINIMAL CIN IN FAR SOUTHERN WI. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK. THUS...ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS. THESE ARE IN THE STABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THESE WILL LIKELY STAY NORTHWEST OF THE MKX FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION HAS BEGUN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL
MODELS KEEP THE STRONGER STORMS CONFINED TO NORTHERN IL AND
SOUTHWARD. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT COULD CLIP SOUTHERN
WI LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE WOULD BE ELEVATED OVER
SOUTHERN WI AND NOT EXPECTING A RISK FOR SEVERE WITH THEM HERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MN AND CENTRAL WI. MKX AREA WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
POINTING TOWARD SOUTHERN MN DURING THIS TIME. SPC EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT RISK INTO WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI FOR
WEDNESDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES GET INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE
WITH MODERATE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HIGH
WIND GUSTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP AROUND 1.4 IN...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHARPENING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD MORE HUMID CONDITIONS LINGERING FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.  LOW LEVEL JET REFOCUSES TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS IA/MN AND THEN VEERS EAST INTO SOUTHERN WI ON THU AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW AND AFFECTS
SOUTHERN WI.  OCCLUDED FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN GTLAKES BY
FRIDAY BUT LINGERING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORE CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

LINGERING UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN GTLAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TROUGH AXIS
REMAINING WEST OF AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL NUDGE
GTLAKES UPPER LOW EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN /ALBEIT BRIEFLY/FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORT WAVE
RIDGING RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE RIDES RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEAST AND RETURNS A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...THE WARM FRONT CREPT NORTHWARD QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED AND HAS ALREADY CLEARED KMSN AND KMKE...IDENTIFIED BY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCOURING OF THE LIFR CIGS. THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NOW THAT
WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT AT LEAST KMKE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR. THE WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND THE DELLS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THE TREK NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY.

UNCERTAIN ABOUT CEILINGS TONIGHT SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO THE KMSN/KUES/KMKE TAF SITES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KMSN AND KMKE TONIGHT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AS REGION GETS INTO
WARM SECTOR AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...

MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT AND EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR ZONES SOUTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE
WARM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE COOL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-292030-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT NEAR A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MILWAUKEE TO WHITEWATER TO
DARLINGTON.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT NORTH OF A MILWAUKEE TO
MADISON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A LOW OVER
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-292030-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. THE DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A LOW OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTH WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON
THURSDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
901 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     HAIL             EAGLE                   42.88N 88.47W
05/28/2013  M0.75 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

ET