Winter Weather in West Virginia, February 8 to 9, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST TODAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0930AM...SOUTHERN STREAM LOW HAS EMERGED OFFSHORE NEAR VA
BEACH AT 995MB...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM LOW HAS REACHED THE
CLEVELAND/ERIE AREA WITH A TRAINING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS. GENERAL SCENARIO ON TRACK...WITH THE COASTAL LOW
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW LATER TODAY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.

AREAS WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR HAVE DRIED OUT...AND WINTER WX
ADVISORY WAS CANCELED AN HOUR EARLY OVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT A FEW
COUNTIES IN MD. THE REMAINING PRECIP OVER MD ALONG AND E OF I95 IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN LATE THIS MORNING.

FURTHER WEST...RAIN AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW/COLD FRONT IS
MOVING EWD ACROSS WV. THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH A TRANSITION TO LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 50 OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S EXPECTED OVER
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DROPPING INTO
THE LOW 30S.

THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT TOWARD THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT DOES SO. THEREFORE...WRAP AROUND SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND UPSLOPE SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. AM FAVORING THE 00Z EURO/00Z NAM OVER THE 00Z GFS WHICH SHOWS
STRONGER INTENSIFICATION AND A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THEREFORE...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND ALSO ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION AFTER THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXPIRES.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 10 ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO UPPER 20S
IN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE DEEP CSTL LOW CHURNS THRU THE NEW ENGLND WATERS SAT...HIPRES
WL ATTEMPT TO BUILD UPON THE MID ATLC. THIS WL YIELD A TIGHT P-GRAD
IN THE MRNG...BUT WL GRDLY RELAX THRUT THE DAY AS THE HIGH NEARS. WL
HOLD ONTO THE STRONG WNDS AND GUSTS ELY...BUT MDL SNDGS SUGGEST
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LYR WL DECR FM 45-50 KT TO 35 KT BY MID MRNG
AND 25-30 KT BY ELY AFTN. GRIDS WL REFLECT THAT PROGRESSION.

XPCT A FAIR AMT OF CLDCVR TO START THE DAY...SPCLY IN THE METRO
CRRDR ASSOCD W/ CSTL LOW...BUT DIURNAL MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF LOW WL ERODE THAT CLD DECK. NLY LLVL FLOW AND DIR SHEAR BTWN SFC
AND H5 SUGGEST THAT UPSLP POTL SHUD CUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY. HV XTNDD
CHC SHSN INTO SAT MRNG...BUT THINK THAT MOST OF THE ACCUM SNWS WUD
HV CEASED. CLDCVR WL BE MORE PERVASIVE IN THE MTNS...TIL DVM ARRIVES
DURING THE AFTN.

SFC HIPRES AND H5 RDGG WL BE ATOP CWFA SAT NGT THRU MIDDAY SUN.
NEARLY CLR SKIES...LOW DEWPTS...AND LGT WNDS SPELL A COLD NGT SAT
NGT DUE TO RADL COOLING. MIN-T ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE SPREAD. RTN
MSTR WUD ARRIVE SUN AFTN...AND HV DELAYED CLDS TIL THEN. HV EMPLOYED
BIAS-CORRECTED MAXT GDNC TO IRON OUT MOS DIFFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIPRES IS FCST TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUN NGT AS AN ORGANIZED LOW
MOVES NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BROAD SLY FLOW IN BETWEEN BOTH
SYSTEMS WILL DRAW WARM/MOIST AIR UP THE ERN SEABOARD. MOST GUIDANCE
PRINTS OUT LIGHT QPF LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. WHILE TEMPS ALOFT
QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR PRECIP STARTING...A WEDGE OF COLD
AIR AT THE SFC WILL TAKE LONGER TO ERODE. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SETUP AT THE ONSET BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THE DAY MON. IN-SITU CAD MAY DEVELOP MON AND LAST LONGER
THAN MODELS INDICATE...SO COLDER TEMPS AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST ERY NEXT WEEK.

FCST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A WAVE OF LOPRES DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKE THE 12Z GFS AND SOME ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW. 00Z ECMWF ALSO ON BOARD W/ THIS SOLN...BUT IT KEEP PCPN S OF
CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE EAST TODAY. RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A WINTERY MIX
ACROSS KIAD EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY 10Z. A
WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS KMRB.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN AFTER 12Z AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

ONLY OP INTEREST THIS WKND WL BE WNDS SAT...SPCLY DURING THE MRNG
HRS...WHEN 40-50 KT PROGGED TO BE PRESENT 1500-3000FT ABV GRND. BY
MIDDAY...SHUD HV NNW WNDS 15-25 KT W/ A FEW G35KT. THESE WNDS WL BE
DIMINISHING SAT NGT. OTRW...VFR THRU THE WKND.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WL BE AFFECTING THE TERMINALS LT SUN NGT INTO
MON. MAY HV WINTRY PCPN AT ONSET...SPCLY INLAND...BEFORE CHGG OVER
TO RA. MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR FLGT CAT. TIMING/DETAILS STILL TBD.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES BY TO OUR EAST
TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL
OCCUR. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS.

A DEEP CSTL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WL PROVIDE A TIGHT P-GRAD AND A
WELL-MIXED ATM INTO SAT MRNG. MDL GDNC SUGGESTING THAT GLW CONDS WL
START THE DAY AND GRDLY RELAX THRU THE DAY. HV XTNDD GLW INTO ELY
AFTN SAT FOR ALL WATERS. TIMING ISSUES /END OF GLW AND LENGTH OF
RAMP-DOWN SCA/ CAN BE IRONED OUT AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

HIPRES OHD SAT NGT-SUN MRNG. SLY FLOW WL RTN SUN PM AHD OF NXT
DISTURBANCE. CHC RA MON-MON NGT. GDNC SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SURGE
W/ THE SLY FLOW MON AS WELL. AM SKEPTICAL W/ WATER TEMPS IN THE
30S...AND HV CAPPED WNDS AT 17 KT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGH TIDE IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY AND UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEFORE THE NEXT HIGH TIDE OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

TIDAL BLOWOUT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ006-007-009>011.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/KCS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...JRK/HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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