Washington, 2013

High Wind in Washington, September 29, 2013

September 29, 2013 · NWS SEW · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

|Along with the City Light outages in Seattle, Puget Sound Energy (PSE) reported 2,788 out of power in the Somerset area of Bellevue (cause undetermined); 1,050 out of power in Mount Vernon (mostly restored in the evening); 1,175 customers without power in Juanita (about two-thirds restored); and 805 customers on Bainbridge Island out of power.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$10,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.

The nasty weather flooded some streets, homes and parking lots, and at one point left 20,000 customers throughout Seattle without power Saturday evening.|Power outages due to broken tree limbs and other causes.|Along with the City Light outages in Seattle, Puget Sound Energy (PSE) reported 2,788 out of power in the Somerset area of Bellevue (cause undetermined); 1,050 out of power in Mount Vernon (mostly restored in the evening); 1,175 customers without power in Juanita (about two-thirds restored); and 805 customers on Bainbridge Island out of power.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 29, 3:25 PM PST, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 29, 3:25 PM PST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
425 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...DAMAGING WINDSTORM FOR PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS WOULD BRING A
WINDSTORM TO PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT...WITH A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK BRINGING A PARTICULARLY STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDSTORM. A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...BOMBOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...MEANING THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INTENSIFYING AT AN
EXCEPTIONAL RATE. THIS IS TAKING PLACE IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 140-150 KT JET AT 300 MB STRETCHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. INDEED...SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN RAPIDLY COOLING AND EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER. AT 20Z...A SHIP REPORT NEAR 46.7N 130.4W CAME
IN WITH A PRESSURE OF 979 MB NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW...WHICH IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER WITH INTENSIFICATION THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN PROJECTING. FASTER DEVELOPMENT TENDS TO FAVOR A
TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE NAM MODEL...BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE GFS.
BOTTOM LINE IS A LANDFALL LATE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND AS A FULLY MATURE 970-ISH MB LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY
SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BENT-BACK OCCLUSION...AS SHOWS BY
MODELS. BENT-BACK OCCLUSIONS ARE OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH OUR MORE
POWERFUL WINDSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO BE PARTICULARLY
IMPACTFUL ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER...925 MB WINDS OF
70-80 KT WILL INTERACT WITH COLD ADVECTION (READ GOOD MIXING) TO
POSE THE RISK OF A HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUST ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN COAST NEAR CAPE FLATTERY...NEAH BAY
AND LA PUSH. THROUGH THE STRAIT...THE 18Z NAM SHOWS 925 MB WINDS OF
60-65 KT...WHICH SHOULD HIT HARD THE NORTHERN HALF OF WHIDBEY
ISLAND...FIDALGO ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN ISLANDS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR...THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH SOUTHERLIES PRECEDING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO OUR NORTH. 18Z GFS-BASED MARINE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR WESTPOINT (AT SEATTLE'S DISCOVERY PARK) SHOWS WINDS
PEAKING THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT 41 KT...WHILE THE 12Z
NAM-BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS 42 KNOTS AT 1 AM TONIGHT. AM NORMALLY
THINKING OF A FULL-FLEDGED HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA
WHEN THIS NUMBER HITS 40 KT.

THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEPTEMBER WINDSTORM IN RECENT
MEMORY. EVEN BY OUR STORMIER MID-WINTER STANDARDS...THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WINDSTORM. THE IMPACTS FROM A WINDSTORM OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL ONLY BE EXACERBATED BY THE FACT THAT IT IS OCCURRING
AT AN UNSEASONABLY EARLY TIME IN THE FALL SEASON. DECIDUOUS TREES
ARE STILL FILLED WITH HEALTHY GREEN LEAVES...WHICH WILL ONLY
INCREASE THE FORCE THAT THESE TREES FEEL FROM SUCH STRONG WIND.
WOULD EXPECT QUITE A FEW FOLKS IN THE MORE SEVERELY IMPACTED AREAS
TO BE WITHOUT POWER ON MONDAY MORNING.

IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SOUTHERLIES PRECEDING
THE LOW WOULD NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH...BUT THE WESTERLY SURGE ALONG
THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE STRAIT WOULD LIKELY BE LESS SEVERE.

OF COURSE...THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS STORM WILL BE ABUNDANT
RAINFALL. MODEL QPF FOR THIS EVENING IS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT WAS
BEING PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...BUT AN ADDITIONAL 2-3+ INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAIN HEADWATERS OF OUR
MAJOR RIVER SYSTEMS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8000 FEET...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN
TO 5000 FEET BEHIND TONIGHT'S LOW CENTER. THIS WOULD NOT IMPACT THE
MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT IT WOULD IMPACT PLACES LIKE ARTIST
POINT...WASHINGTON PASS...AND MOUNT RAINIER. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET...SO LATER SHIFT
MAY NEED TO LOWER THE CUTOFF ELEVATION FOR THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE UNSTABLE. MOS
NUMBERS SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER...SO PUT A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE JET
STREAM CUTTING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FORCING
SOME VERTICAL ASCENT...THUNDER IS NOT A STRETCH.   HANER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY DIVE SE THROUGH THE PAC NW ON
WED...BRINGING THE COOLEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS FALL AND SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS PASSING ACROSS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRIER PERIOD WITH COLDER
NIGHTS WILL BE THE RESULT. WESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWING BY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...CHANCE OF RAIN GOES BACK UP NEXT WEEKEND.       HANER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...CONTINUED TODAY.  STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 4 PM TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS RANGE
FROM 3 TO ALMOST 8 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WERE OVER THE NORTH
CASCADES AND THE OLYMPICS. IN THE LOWLANDS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
WAS THE HARDEST HIT WITH A GAUGE IN THE WILLAPAS 6 MILES SOUTH OF PE
ELL REPORTING 7.3 INCHES WITH NUMEROUS OTHER SITES REPORTING 3 TO
OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN. GENERALLY AROUND 3 INCHES FELL OVER THE
COAST. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HEAVY ENOUGH AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
KEEP MANY RIVERS FROM FALLING FURTHER...AND SOME HAVE BEEN RISING
ALL DAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER THE
LOWLANDS. THIS SECOND SHOT OF RAIN WILL KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT GOING
ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM
IS ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY...THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR
ORTING IN PIERCE COUNTY AND THE NEWAUKUM RIVER IN LEWIS COUNTY. ALL
HAVE FLOOD WARNINGS OUT ON THEM. BEYOND THAT...THE LOWER CHEHALIS
RIVER HAS A THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BOWER

&&

&&

.AVIATION...A 972 MB LOW WILL CROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL GIVE AREAS OF WIND SHEAR AND MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TONIGHT.
STORM WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE MARINE ZONES WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES OVER THE LAND. THERE IS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG WESTERLY
JET STREAM POINTED INTO THE REGION FOR SO EARLY IN THE FALL. RAIN
MAY BECOME HEAVY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN WA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED.

KSEA...THE WIND WILL INCREASE AS GRADIENTS RISE THIS EVENING...A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PUGET SOUND AROUND 9 PM. THERE
WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A WS020/50KT IN THE TAF FORECAST.
HERE IS THE NAM TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FOR SEATTLE.

&&

.MARINE...STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. A 972
MB LOW WILL CROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT...THE LATEST RUC FORECAST
AS OF 3PM GIVES A +10MB AST-UIL GRADIENT WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN
SOME EARLIER RUC SOLUTIONS BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE A STORM FOR LATE
SEPT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A
HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES. THE HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO EXPECT COASTAL FLOODING BUT ADD A
THREE FOOT TIDAL ANOMALY TO THE TIDE TABLES TONIGHT FOR THE COAST
AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE COAST...WESTERN STRAIT...OLYMPICS...
     THE NORTH INTERIOR...AND THE EVERETT AND SEATTLE AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TACOMA AREA...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...
     LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT ISLAND AND SAN JUAN COUNTIES.

     HIGH SURF WARNING FOR THE COAST.

     WINTER STORM WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000
     FEET.

PZ...STORM WARNING ALL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 29, 11:36 AM PST, 5 hours 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1236 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE NORTH BEND        47.47N 121.74W
09/29/2013  M2.28 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL AS OF MIDNIGHT.

&&

GRUB
Local storm report, Sep 29, 1:39 PM PST, 3 hours 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
239 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE ELWHA             48.06N 123.57W
09/29/2013  M2.32 INCH       CLALLAM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL AS OF 230PM.

&&

GRUB
Local storm report, Sep 29, 2:18 PM PST, 2 hours 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE POULSBO           47.70N 122.62W
09/29/2013  M2.25 INCH       KITSAP             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE FRIDAY.

0318 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE NORTH BEND         47.48N 121.76W
09/29/2013  M3.29 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE FRIDAY.

&&

GRUB
Local storm report, Sep 29, 4:20 PM PST, 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
520 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HEAVY RAIN       N HAMMA HAMMA           47.53N 123.05W
09/29/2013  M2.95 INCH       MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS AS OF 5 PM. STILL RAINING.

&&

GRUB

Event by event

4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Admiralty Inlet Area

When
September 29, 5:00 PM PST to 7:00 PM PST
Where
Admiralty Inlet Area forecast zone
Measured
35 kt (40 mph) measured sustained
Reported by
Mesonet

Sandy Point Shores had a couple of observations of sustained 40 mph wind around 6 PM.

High Wind, North Coast

When
September 29, 5:00 PM PST to 7:00 PM PST
Where
North Coast forecast zone
Measured
51 kt (59 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
C-MAN Station

One observation at Destruction Island of sustained 51 KT near 6 PM.

High Wind, Central Coast

When
September 29, 5:30 PM PST to 8:30 PM PST
Where
Central Coast forecast zone
Measured
35 kt (40 mph) measured sustained
Property damage
$10,000
Reported by
Other Federal Agency

The Westport tide gauge, owned by the National Ocean Service, had 3 hours off and on 40+ sustained with one gust to 60 mph 630-930 PM.|In Moclips, there was damage to several roofs and an old spruce tree was uprooted as well.

High Wind, Olympics

When
September 29, 6:30 PM PST to 8:30 PM PST
Where
Olympics forecast zone
Measured
74 kt (85 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Park/Forest Service

Northwest Avalanche and Weather Center equipment recorded an 85 mph gust on Hurricane Ridge.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Washington in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, September 2013

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 472825, 472827, 472830, 472826.