Drought in Texas, September 1 to 30, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

.AVIATION...
IN THE SHORT TERM A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
IS SHOWING SOME TENDENCY TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MAY
YET END UP IN THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT NOT FAR FROM
KCDS. MOST SOLUTIONS DIMINISH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE REACHING KCDS
WHILE THE LATEST HRRR DOES BRING LIGHTER SHOWERS TO THE AREA AFTER
14Z. WE REMAIN UNCONVINCED SO WILL RETAIN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
INCREASE AT KCDS AFTER 14Z. OTHERWISE...ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR POSSIBLY DELAYED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING SHOULD OFFER AT LEAST SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER AT BOTH
KLBB AND KCDS. LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY EAGER TO MOVE
ACTIVITY IN BEFORE 06Z HOWEVER. WE WILL FOLLOW THIS LACKADAISICAL
APPROACH AND AVOID ADDING IMPLICIT THUNDER TO THE END OF THE 06Z
TAFS JUST YET. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013/

AVIATION...
QUIET VFR CONDITIONS IN STORE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
DEVELOPING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL SOLUTIONS END ACTIVITY BEFORE REACHING
CHILDRESS...ALTHOUGH A MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO
SURVIVE INTO KCDS EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH PERHAPS A SHIFT TO MORE
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. WILL TRY TO ADDRESS THIS WITH MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE 06Z TAF. OTHERWISE FOCUS WILL BE TOWARDS
INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES FOR BOTH TAF SITES JUST BEYOND THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013/

SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WAS PROVIDING
ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. 19Z TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...VARYING FROM THE
MID-90S ON THE CAPROCK TO AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THE HIGH SO FAR AT KLBB HAS REACHED 97 DEGREES AND
WILL TOP OUT VERY CLOSE TO THE RECORD OF 100 DEGREES...SET BACK IN
1930. THE STRONG HEATING AND RESULTANT DEEP MIXING WAS NOW
SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS...THOUGH LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WARM MID-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THESE CLOUDS
LIMITED IN VERTICAL EXTENT. INSTEAD...THE CLOSEST CONVECTION WAS
FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL DIRECT THIS ACTIVITY
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE DECAYING
CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE NORTHEAST ZONES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...THOUGH THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME IS AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS.

THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS MODEST PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY LOCALLY WHILE ALSO CAUSING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO
BEND SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE
PASSING NORTHERN WAVE WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH THE LATEST INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
THE FRONT...IMPROVED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RESULTING IN INCREASING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BEFORE
00Z...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. RELATIVELY
HOT AND DRY LOW LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED-V PROFILE COUPLED WITH MOIST
MID/UPPER LEVELS COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY MORE
INTENSE RAIN CORES. ALSO THE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT AND RESULTING
INCREASING PWATS /FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES/ COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY SLOW
STEERING FLOW COULD SUPPORT DECENT RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. IT WILL
BE HOT AGAIN SUNDAY BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A TOUCH FROM
TODAY FOR MOST SPOTS.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT TO SAG SWD THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO FOCUS THUNDER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING. FOCUS LIKELY TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE ROLLING
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT ROTATING AROUND THE SRN ROCKIES
RIDGE STAYS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA. PRE-06Z POPS LOOK
GOOD AS THEY ARE BUT WILL ADJUST 06Z-12Z POPS WITH 30S EAST AND
20S ELSEWHERE.

STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER MONDAY
AFTN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WHICH BY THAT TIME LIKELY TO BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS SHOULD FOCUS POPS TOWARD THE SWRN
THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
TO BUMP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY.

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE
RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES EXPANDS WITH RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST
EXPANSION MORE NWD RATHER THAN EWD ONTO THE PLAINS. LAST SEVERAL
ITERATIONS OF MEDIUM-RANGE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS KLBB HIGHS IN A
RANGE FROM 89-92 DEGREES. CURRENT FCST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK IN
GREAT SHAPE WITH FEW CHANGES TO BE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  63  87  63 /  10  20  30  20  20
TULIA         67  93  65  87  64 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  94  65  87  64 /   0  20  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  97  66  88  66 /   0  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  97  68  89  66 /   0  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   63  95  66  87  64 /   0  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  98  68  89  66 /   0  10  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  99  69  92  67 /  10  20  30  20  10
SPUR          71 101  70  89  68 /   0  10  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     73 101  71  91  70 /   0  10  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 AM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

TXZ021>044-011030-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
528 AM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.