Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall developed over much of the South Plains late this morning and afternoon ahead of a slow moving warm front. Aloft, an unsettled southwesterly flow combined with exceptionally moist air to produce multiple rounds of elevated showers and thunderstorms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall developed over much of the South Plains late this morning and afternoon ahead of a slow moving warm front. Aloft, an unsettled southwesterly flow combined with exceptionally moist air to produce multiple rounds of elevated showers and thunderstorms. Wind shear and instability were favorable enough for a few of these storms to acquire rotation from South Plains (Floyd County) to Turkey (Hall County). One of these rotating storms produced torrential rainfall and two inches worth of pea size hail in Turkey. Although localized, flooding affected much of Turkey and adjacent sections of Highway 86. Elsewhere, widespread soaking rains impacted all but the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle and southern Rolling Plains where on average around one inch of rain was measured. Following the rain, several days of cool temperatures proved detrimental to farmers as many fields remained too wet for harvesting. Cotton bolls suffered some degradation in quality, but monetary losses were expected to be minimal.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 13, 3:43 AM CST, 32 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 443 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013 .SHORT TERM... BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING...KLBB VWP DATA SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING OVER AND ERODING THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE LATER THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRAW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FA. LOW THETA-E CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE REPLACED BY RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E AIR THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME. DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE RESIDUAL COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS WERE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A LARGE SLUG OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK THIS EVENING SATURATING MODEL SOUNDINGS. PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES OBSERVED FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. A 100KT UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET WAS POSITIONED OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES EJECTS EASTWARD...SOME JET COUPLING MAY OCCUR BOOSTING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL BE STEEP BY FLOW WILL BE WEAK WITH WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15KT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OVER A DEEP LAYER BUT WILL TRANSLATE TO A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA. WITH A LACK OF A LARGE AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SECONDARY PEAK OF PRECIPITATION MAY THEN OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WAA CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. JDV && .LONG TERM... UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH MID AND UPPER FLOW VEERING SLIGHTLY...ENOUGH FOR DEEP LAYER DRYING ALOFT. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH HOLDING NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...NOT RELEASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE DRY-LINE NEAR THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL REMAIN MONDAY OVER EASTERN ZONES IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EASTWARD EARLY MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BE A FOCUS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES. THE VEERED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH THE DEEP DRY AIR TAKING HOLD...AND A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY FAR TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. TWO ADDITIONAL TROUGHS DURING THE WEEK ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO CAVE TOWARDS THE SHARPER ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS WE HAVE ANTICIPATED. THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR COLD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING WESTERN AREAS EARLY SPREADING EAST. LIMITED IMPROVEMENT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY OWING TO SEEDING FROM ALOFT AS FRONT WILL NOT RETURN NORTHWARD BY THEN. ANOTHER DEEP COLD TROUGH APPEARS WILL BE APPROACHING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW MENTION OF THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 65 57 77 38 59 / 50 50 20 10 10 TULIA 66 58 76 43 60 / 60 60 30 20 10 PLAINVIEW 66 60 76 45 61 / 60 60 30 20 10 LEVELLAND 68 60 77 45 64 / 50 50 20 10 10 LUBBOCK 68 63 76 49 64 / 60 60 30 10 10 DENVER CITY 70 61 78 50 66 / 50 50 20 10 10 BROWNFIELD 70 61 78 50 65 / 50 50 30 10 10 CHILDRESS 71 64 76 54 64 / 60 70 60 30 10 SPUR 69 63 76 53 65 / 60 70 50 20 10 ASPERMONT 73 65 77 60 67 / 60 70 60 40 20 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 01/05
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 449 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013 TXZ021>044-141000- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 449 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An NWS COOP observer in Turkey measured 7.15 inches of rain. The majority of this rain fell within one hour from a nearly stationary thunderstorm. This same storm also produced pea size hail up to two inches deep in Turkey, but no damage was reported.
The public reported standing water of unknown depth covering all of Highway 86 in and around Turkey.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 473711, 473710.