Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 1 to 2, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
631 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 1AM. WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM SAN ANGELO TO TEXARKANA AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH.
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM DID DEVELOP ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHWESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH BROKEN CIRRUS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND OTHERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z-05Z AS THE CONVECTION AND WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION AND IMPACTS THE TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS
OF AT LEAST 40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES THEN RAPID
IMPROVEMENT ONCE THE CONVECTION PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT E-SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THEN SHIFT A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS. AFTER 12Z
SUN EXPECT VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #270...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FOR
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS TX WAS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NRN CWA AROUND NRN BURNET
COUNTY AROUND 6-7PM. STRONG SOLAR HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID/UPPER 90S WITH SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING LEFT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AND MOVING THE COMPLEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM/HI-RES-ARW HAVE A MORE SWWD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WHICH IS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE HEATING IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NE-NRN HILL COUNTRY WITH MENTION OF SEVERE THIS EVENING...
TRANSITIONING TO THE CENTRAL-SWRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT
MENTION SEVERE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE COULD LINGER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SWRN COUNTIES. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE COOLER AND
DRIER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NE COUNTIES/HILL COUNTRY WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDING INTO S TX THRU
ABOUT WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT AND RAIN CHANCES
TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL. A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT BELOW
NORMAL MIN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING SE-EWD OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ACROSS WEST/NORTH TX OVER NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...WHICH IS
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ALSO SLIGHTLY LESS
DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER MAX TEMPS AND WARMER
MIN TEMPS AS THE SLY PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  91  65  93  69 /  40  20  -   -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  90  63  93  67 /  40  20  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  66  93  67 /  40  20  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  88  63  89  68 /  40  20  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  96  72  98  74 /  40  20  10   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  89  63  91  68 /  40  20  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  93  68  95  68 /  40  20  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  65  93  68 /  40  20  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  91  68  94  69 /  40  30  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  92  68  94  69 /  40  20  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  92  68  94  69 /  40  20  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-030000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
658 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARRIZO SPRINGS TO LOCKHART TO TAYLOR. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE BETWEEN 7 PM AND 7 AM.
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.