An unusual westward-moving cold core low entered New Mexico on the 16th ahead of a deep surge of Gulf moisture. Widespread rainfall developed in the Rolling Plains late on the 16th before spreading west onto the Caprock and intensifying with torrential rainfall rates measured as high as 4 inches per hour in some locales.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
An unusual westward-moving cold core low entered New Mexico on the 16th ahead of a deep surge of Gulf moisture. Widespread rainfall developed in the Rolling Plains late on the 16th before spreading west onto the Caprock and intensifying with torrential rainfall rates measured as high as 4 inches per hour in some locales. One of these bands tracked very slowly across Plainview during the pre-dawn hours and produced over five inches of rain causing widespread street flooding and some water damage to area buildings. Some streets became impassable and a few vehicles were disabled after motorists attempted to cross high water. Elsewhere on the South Plains, minor flooding of streets and roadways were commonplace, but this was a minor inconvenience considering the need for substantial rainfall. After 999 consecutive days without measuring 1.5 inches of rain or more, Lubbock International Airport finally ended its streak today when it received 2.20 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 10:33 PM CST, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1133 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013 .AVIATION... MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DOMINATE CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KCDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHRA...AND POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWERS DROPPING VSBYS BRIEFLY INTO IFR TERRITORY AS WELL. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WED...BUT WE HAVE INDICATED 15-16Z AS AN APPROXIMATION. SCATTERED -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED WITH BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED AT KLBB. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013/ UPDATE... WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE INDICATIONS THAT THE BROAD PRECIP BAND WHICH WAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IS FINALLY BEGINNING IT/S MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD SHIFT. DESPITE THERE CURRENTLY BEING A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED...WE STILL EXPECT SOME EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IN THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS /I.E. WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING OR JUST ABOUT TO RAIN/. AS FOR HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL...WE HAVE SEEN MODERATE RAINFALL RATES SO FAR...GENERALLY ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR OR LESS...WITH SOME SMALL POCKETS OF UP TO AN INCH/HR RATES IN GARZA AND CROSBY COUNTIES WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. WHILE WE DO SEE INDICATIONS THAT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WE ARE ALMOST CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE SOME MINOR URBAN STREET FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP. POST...SLATON...TAHOKA...BROWNFIELD...AND LUBBOCK ARE SOME OF THE URBAN AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR THIS THREAT. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS POTENTIAL. UPDATED GRIDS AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013/ AVIATION... MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD -SHRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS OR SO IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING -TSRA AS WELL. WE EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO BE MOST COMMON AFTER 03Z...AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AS WELL. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT IN THE 15 TO 16Z TIME FRAME WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR -TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AT KLBB. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013/ SHORT TERM... MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MAINLY THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN TOTALS EXCEEDING ONE INCH ACROSS STONEWALL...KENT AND KING COUNTIES THUS FAR. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE WEST...SOUTHERLY WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS WELL...WHICH WILL MOVE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION...AND AS A RESULT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS CAN EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BEFORE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. WHILE RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN MODEST THUS FAR WITH MAX VALUES BETWEEN .75 AND 1 INCH PER HOUR... THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES...AND EVEN A FEW TOTALS OF 3 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. IN ADDITION... WHILE THE PRIMARY LOCATION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... SOME ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING WEST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THAN TODAY'S ACTIVITY GIVEN MARGINALLY INCREASED INSTABILITY AND WEAKER FORCING...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO VERY LOCALIZED AREAS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY'S VALUES...LIKELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. LONG TERM... BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPINNING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...ITS INFLUENCE MAY STILL BE FELT ACROSS THE FA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE TO NO LIFT REMAINING OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS ASSERTION OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE LIFT. MODELS SEEM TO BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF FIELDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LARGER ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN ON THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...IT WILL STILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS BEEN DEPICTING A COLD FRONT MAKING A RUN AT THE AREA BUT THIS FRONT MAY STOP WELL SHORT OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. JDV && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 58 77 61 82 63 / 60 40 20 20 10 TULIA 60 79 62 82 64 / 60 40 20 20 10 PLAINVIEW 61 79 63 82 64 / 60 50 20 20 10 LEVELLAND 62 75 64 82 65 / 70 60 30 20 10 LUBBOCK 63 78 65 82 67 / 90 60 30 20 10 DENVER CITY 63 74 64 83 66 / 70 70 30 30 10 BROWNFIELD 64 77 64 82 66 / 80 70 30 20 10 CHILDRESS 66 84 67 87 69 / 60 40 20 20 10 SPUR 66 81 66 85 68 / 90 50 20 20 10 ASPERMONT 67 86 67 88 71 / 90 40 20 20 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 33
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 902 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013 TXZ021>044-180215- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 902 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT FLOODING OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS...PLAYA LAKES AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 114. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND A THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR HEAVY RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
704 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013
TXZ021-170030-
PARMER-
704 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARMER COUNTY...
AT 700 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL PARMER
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE TOWNS OF BOVINA AND RHEA
ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.
PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS SPEEDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORM. DOWNPOURS FROM THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.
LAT...LON 3432 10278 3432 10304 3453 10304 3475 10303
3475 10276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 125DEG 7KT 3445 10295
MRCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
From midnight CST through 620 am CST, a Texas Tech University West Texas Mesonet station near Plainview measured 5.26 inches of rain. Rainfall rates were occasionally as high as 4.08 inches per hour.
Torrential rainfall created widespread street flooding throughout the city of Plainview with some vehicles reported to be stalled in high water. The rains also caused damage to some buildings, particularly the roof of the city library where an estimated $1200 worth of books were damaged after water leaked through the roof along the north wall. The city jail also experienced flooding from a faulty roof resulting in an unknown amount of water damage to ceiling tiles.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 453606, 453605.